Twetch will win. Your invitation to join Twetch

Twetch is Twitter on BSV. More than that it is Twitter monetised and permanently recorded on the BSV blockchain.

Why Twetch will win?

Older technology will be superseded by a newer technology if the new technology offers new features that are cheaper, faster, and/or better than the old.

Being cheaper and faster may not be the killer features to replace an entrench system but additional features that are useful and indispensable will. Monetisation on Twetch is this additional feature.

For Twitter, trolling is toxic. It kills user experience. Trolling is endemic because it is free. Putting an economic cost. even a fraction of a cent will bring the worst effects of trolling under control. Trolls cannot commercialise their business model on Twetch because it will be too expensive.

Putting your money where your mouth is. How true! When you have to put your money where your mouth is - You trend towards truth and honesty. Doing otherwise will cost you money.

Your invitation to join Twetch

https://twet.ch/inv/aaef0c7e

Another spike in BSV price today!

"BSV jumps 17% out of nowhere" says one headline. It is actually greater than 25% really but the gist of the headline was it jumped 17% when all other cryptos were in bear mood. When BTC passed 10,000 the whole market of course rebounded including BSV.

Why did BTC pass 10K ?

My take is the slowing global economy prompted by the corona virus ( nCov ). The effects on commodity demand due to China shutdown is being felt. Oil has plunged 20% with little hope of it recovering in the next 2 quarters. The ramifications of this is huge as the price of oil affects highly leverage shale producers immediately and Saudi Arabia needs oil at $80 to balance its budget.

Supply lines have been disrupted leading to many factories including Hyundai, outside China, also shutting down. A consequence of today's just in time production, and this was only due to one week shutdown. China restart was planned for Monday Feb 10 but this may be extended by another week! The mood has changed, lost production, revenue and profits may never be recovered. The long touted recession may finally be here despite all the money printing by reserve banks around the world to avoid it.

Excessive money printing can only result in devaluation of fiat currencies worldwide. Some countries like Columbia and Zimbabwe have adopted the US dollar because their own currency have failed. However, all fiat currencies have only 1 outcome - a move to zero, as governments can never stop printing to offset tax deficits. Normally the affected country will just reset with a new fiat currency but today with the options of digital currencies and cryptos there are choices.

Why the increase in price for BTC

BTC proponents want you to believe that the moonshot is near or here. I believe that BTC price increased because it is the main gateway for new money to flow into BSV. If this is true then the next phase will be for BTC price to fall while BSV rises.

Corona Virus and Economic Impact

The above show 549 deaths in Hubei out of 564. The death rate in Hubei is way above any other cities even in China. So why is this?

Professor Michael Levitt in the interview below suggest that the death statistics looks more like an instance of poisoning than a viral epidemic because of the localised nature of the deaths concentrated in Hubei. Secondary cities including cities out of China show death rates consistent with the common flu.

What is different about Hubei.

To understand this we have to appreciate why Chinese choose to consume exotic meats. Older generations being generally less educated, believe that consuming such products will benefit them health wise or cure them of certain ailments.

We know that Corona virus jumped from animal to human. Quite likely there was a sick animal which pass the virus to all the people handling it. These people will be the core and source of the infection. Perhaps consumption of the meat was also a health risk especially among older people.

The next round of infection are those that came into close contact with carriers which was made worse by the ability of the virus to spread even in its' incubation stage.

The red flag was first raised on 31st December 2019 and city wide quarantine imposed on January 23. Exposure through close contact probably stopped soon after that as everyone becomes aware of the risks. Quite possibly the virility of the pathogen is greater through direct contact and less from passing proximity or contaminated surfaces.

If 2019-nCov is a deadly killer virus the death rates in the whole of China would be exponential by now rather than tailing off. It is probably less of a killer than the common flu, unless there is close contact and direct exposure. The fact that it can be spread during its' incubation period is what will lead to the virus spreading worldwide and perhaps would be unstoppable. The only solace will be its' low fatality rate.

Is China To Blame?

Viral mutation is a natural phenomenon. It could have happened anywhere. It is fortunate for us that this strain struck in China at this time! Within 7 days of notification Chinese scientist were able to sequence the genome and place the whole cities of the nation under quarantine to stop the spread of the infection nationally and globally. No country in the world could or would be willing to take such draconian measures at such huge cost to their economy. We should be thankful that China did.

We have now learned much about this virus and much will now change. China would probably ban all live wildlife markets and this time it would probably stick. Old superstitions die hard and this experience will hopefully change worldwide attitudes and give new hope to wildlife and endangered species.

As 2019-NCov will most probably remain with us from now on, our attitudes towards personal hygiene, social behavior and cleanliness will change for the better.

Economic Impact.

China is the biggest importer and consumer of crude oil in the world. When China shut the taps crude prices fell 20% immediately. This shows the demand pull on oil prices and emphasis the potential for China to influence crude prices into the future should she wish to do so. OPEC no longer control oil prices. China does. Let us hope that she refrains from implementing a China first policy.

Looking further into the future, oil is a sunset industry with renewals and electrification of transport playing a greater role each year, countries reliant on oil do not have much time left to transform their economy. Elon Musk commented that it would only take 100 X 100 miles of solar panels to power the whole of the United States and a battery bank 1 X 1 mile to do so.

With China closing down its factories for an extra weeks many factories located in other countries also needed to cut or close production because they depend on China's supply chain. It would be difficult to change this reliance and dependency.

More that 140 million Chinese tourist visit other countries each year and many countries will take a hit economically as this revenue source has been completely shut both by China and by the receiving countries. How will China tailor its outbound tourism going forward, after this crisis?

Current estimate is that the world will take a 2% GDP hit in the first quarter of this year with China hit particularly hard. How will the US react to slow or reduce purchases from China as agreed in their phase 1 agreement? To raise dollars China can always sell treasuries and this will not be good for the US as it is still running bigger deficits each year.

A compromise will be found. If anything this episode have highlighted the fact that we have to live together as one people and one world. America first, China first or any country for that matter is a recipe for disaster. There will be a global recession just around the corner and this time there will not be a China pump to bail us out. We will have to do it together.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/timeline-china-coronavirus-spread-200126061554884.html


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ha5YUGqmWKg

Bitcoin SV Next Bull Run

When will Bitcoin SV next bull run take place?

Guess we are all still buzzing over the last BSV price run up! When the dust finally settled BSV is up 300% and holding. So why did the last price hop happened? The main excuse was that CSW got the keys to his bitcoins! I commented then that it is nonsense as it was only a rumour and even if true the impact will be negligible. If the fear was that he would dump BTC to push up BSV then BTC should have experience a significant drop in price.

Those who are into BSV know that it is the original and real Bitcoin and are convince that it will be the only blockchain on which all blockchain apps will be built. The run up in price is only the first phase of existing whales and hedge funds building a position and new money coming into BSV.

Had it just been a CSW rumour then  BSV's price would have drop lower than from where it started - about $90. Instead it has settled around $300. The likely scenario is that this is the new floor from which the next price push will take place possibly to settle again between $600 and $900.

Timing a bull run is not a science. We can be sure that BSV will make its' biggest price break when hedge funds are convinced that BSV is the real Bitcoin. This will happen when all the arguments against BSV crumbles one by one and we reach tipping point in public perception first within the crypto community then in the wider public.

With that in mind the start of the next run should happen soon after the Genesis upgrade faultlessly. With that we should see all the apps timing for this event launch on the BSV blockchain. This burst in activity especially in monetized social media apps will pull many within the crypto community towards BSV.

How will it play out?

We should first see a sell-offs in alt as the smart developers and investors realise that their projects will work better on BSV. As before the move will be gradual but we will see it as a match between BCH and BSV.

It is quite surprising that BCH has maintained even the valuation it has now, with such low number of transactions on its' blockchain. Perhaps BCH supporters believe that it is digital silver to BTC'd digital gold. The truth is that with micro-transactions a reality, there is no need for digital silver, bronze or gold for that matter.

So the next phase will be a seesawing battle between BSV and BCH with the BSV whales taking every opportunity to build on their portfolio as the price moves in their favour. I suspect that BCH supporters will fight hard to prop up the value to stay ahead of BSV. If true this behaviour can be taken advantage off.

This phase will complete when BSV move to number 4 on coinmarket ranking indisputably, which will then trigger the next phase which is the race to NO 1.

WOW The Skip Happened ! Now For The Flip

When I wrote this article yesterday ( The Coming BSV Skip and Flip ) BSV was sitting at $170. Woke up this morning and it is $336 and has already surpass BCH at $331. No, I do not have a crystal ball or any inside information. I just noticed the volatility of BCH hashrate and suspected that something must be up with the Unknown Miners.

If BCH supporters are really desperately trying to keep their hashrate up by renting mining rigs then the game is really up. It is only a matter of time, as this will be a futile exercise. They will not have enough money to keep up with the rising price of BSV. It is a vicious feedback loop. Now it has happened. There will of course be resistance with market support but the outcome is inevitable. The fundamental value proposition for BCH is flawed.

For my observance this was my reward.

You've been permanently banned from participating in r/Bitcoincash

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Note from the moderators:

Trolling

If you have a question regarding your ban, you can contact the moderator team for r/Bitcoincash by replying to this message.

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This is the first time that I have ever been banned and I have not posted there in 2 years. Guess the truth must hurt. Can't be that bad really because BCH price is actually up by about $70 since my post.

So the The Skip is over. Now the mainstream crypto presses will be pushing hard on the Tulip Trust narrative. Come on be serious. Anybody with common sense can see that it is all about the technology. Why is it that hard to fathom?

Unconfirmed if and buts about the tulip trust even if true, cannot account for the huge run up in price. It means that there is real demand especially when you realise that BSV price have been going up steadily since mid December and in reality since the delisting. 

Will The Flip happen now? Of course. More people are starting to believe or hedging their bets just in case.

Pump and Dump

Will there be a huge dump coming up? Unlikely. Those holding BSV are believers. Being a very divisive 3 way tug of war between the 3 coins those who wants to dump have done so already. The BSV community is even smaller than BCH, and those who are invested for the long term will hold on to their coins, which creates scarcity and more upward price pressure.

There will of course be attempts to push the price lower by traders but the variation will be no more than 30% at most and will be good opportunity to buy the dips. 

Watch the hashrate

I have explained what I believe will be the mechanics of The Flip so I will not repeat it here. As hashrate moves over to BSV, BTC's blocktime will rise and the mempool will bloat as well. This will be the start of the dreaded Chain Death Spiral for BTC. 

The average time between blocks for BTC is rising fast and is already at 17 minutes almost taking twice as long for blocks to confirm. 

Now that everybody have seen what happened BTC supporters will surely put up a valiant effort to prevent the Flipping. There will be lies, misinformation, market support, etc and again the outcome is inevitable. The value proposition that BTC is digital gold is also flawed. The great hope for BTC in the lightning network is also in trouble with security ans scalability issues.

As more people who have substantial financial stake in BTC realise, or start to feel uncomfortable about this, they will start to hedge by at least equalising the number of each coin held. This will of course drive up the price of already tightly held BSV. In a rising market miners will also withhold coins, selling only if they have to further restricting supply. Those selling in the hope of buying back on the dip if are unable to do so will quickly re-buyback at a higher price which will again add to upward price pressure.

Why should BSV succeed.

It has a useful value proposition anchored on a stable protocol with massive scaling.

Other ancillary reasons

1) The Bitcoin founder is behind the chain and supports the development of the chain. I have believed that Craig was Satoshi when he first turned up at this discussion back in June 2017. As more people accept this fact the negative connotation of Craig's effect on BSV price in the past will reverse. I also wrote another piece on why it matters.

2) The developer tools available to support building on BSV. The emphasis is on building useful apps, not on currency and price. The only way to get mass adoption is to get the masses using Bitcoin without them knowing that they are. 

3) The nChain team and Bitcoin Association are always announcing new apps, tools and developments. There is a sense of growth and vitality.

4) The BSV development team always deliver on their promises usually ahead of deadline scheduled.

5) The community is alot more friendly.

That said, all that is left to do is to sit back and watch events roll out as predicted. It is a great time to be alive and watch this drama play out.