Caught The Train But Missed The Station !

 Caught The Train But Missed The Station

Early Adopters Don't Necessarily Win

Crypto has gone mainstream. However, most people coming into this space for the first time think that they are late to the party. That is not true. Over the years the crypto space have moved from just Bitcoin to Alt coins to competing platforms to decentralised finance and Non Fungible Tokens, and yet this space is still changing and evolving.

Take crypto as a monetary unit. How many would have believed that BTC today will be worth $60K? Very few, and those that rode the train to this stop must have locked away and left their BTC untouched. Most would have traded out, reinvested in other competing tokens or invested in worthless schemes if not scams. 

Take Doge coin. The copper to Bitcoin Gold. I first wrote about it here and always believe that the support base was young, fanatical and crazy. I myself have owned, invested sand divested tens of millions Doge many times over and yet never rally made a profit. Something at the back of my mind can't get to grips with 10 billion issues a year. Still don't but look at it today. Again if you have 1 million doge you forgot about in a wallet somewhere....!!

Early adopters do not necessarily win. It was the wild wild west then and threats from regulators was always a drag on adoption. So what have I learned? Holding on to an asset waiting for it to rise in value is very hard to do. When do you get off?  Do you get on again? Price can swing as much as 50% in a very short time or it could lasta year or two. So many end up buying high selling low. What a Comedy but that's life. 

Hodle, but what coins? Remember the Dotcoms. Many failed but a few like Google and Facebook became world dominating mega corporations. The same will be true for Blockchain. The successful coins will have to be useful and widely accepted.

Many coins profess being a digital currency as a use case. This is not going to happen. Every country will want and need to have a local currency they alone control. This is a national security issue. The only legal digital currency for local commerce will be their own. Every external country's digital currency including cryptos will be outlawed . Can they control this? Yes. Movements of Digital currencies by it's nature is transparent. The IRD will require explanations for any unusual flow ratios. 

This means that Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Dogecoin and many other similar coins that  are not platforms for building projects can't be used firstly because they will be made illegal and secondly because they can never scale far enough for this purpose.

Unless they can be used as money, they can't really be a store of value like art and precious metals. If countries were to accept Bitcoin or something similar as a reserve asset, then only countries must hold the vast majority of that asset. Fr Bitcoin and similar cryptos, this condition can never be met. 

Countries hold other country's currency as reserve assets because it is used in international trade between countries. By this reasoning, because Bitcoin is not a reserve currency it cannot be used for international trade settlement. You may say that some companies are doing this already and you will be right but it is in a transitory space. National digital currencies are not in used yet.

Platform coins like Ethereum, Cosmos, Polkadot, Cardano, Eos and other similar coins have a better chance to remain relevant and future proof. In this Ethereum holds the lead. It is quite possible that Ethereum can overtake Bitcoin in crypto dominance in the near future. This will certainly raise eyebrows about the viability of Bitcoin long term.

In terms of scaling Bitcoin SV is the clear winner. It has the largest blocksize. Voluntarily capped at 2GB, it can be raised in future without hard forks. In addition BSV base protocol layer is frozen. Developers can build applications without worrying about reworking every time a change to the protocol is made affecting their application. National currencies can be tokenised to operate on the BSV chain. Expect this to happen as we move towards micro payments and Internet Of Things.

For store of value Non Fungible Tokens will be the new asset class. Which NFTs and on what platform has yet to be played out and will continue to be an evolving landscape. NFTs that sell for thousands and millions today may be worth nothing in future.

Best way to Hodle

Thanks to Defi, we now have a new way to hodle and earn an income. If you are saving for a retirement a little put aside every month into a mutual fund will add up to a sizeable lump sum for your retirement. 

We can now do this with crypto. There are many platforms and methods. I will not go into the mechanics but the principle is that you deposit the coin that you want to hodle and earn an income stream for doing that. That income stream can be reinvested resulting in a system of compounding the weekly or even daily. 

With this system in 3 to 5 years your hodled coins could increase in value many times over and/or you get an investment model that generates a good income stream for your retirement.

Do your own research on which system to use. The Kava platform from the Cosmostation wallet is one..

Paymail is here!! This is the Killer App for BSV mass adoption

Imagine paying someone by just sending money to their personal email address. Yes you can. This is Paymail and it goes into Beta today. The caveat is that it only works with a domain name address.

How it works.

Your email is the gateway to your moneybutton account. ( Relayx, Handcash )

1) You will need an invite to join the beta and you can do that through this link https://mypaymail.co/

2) Upon approval you will be given a mypaymail account example : 000@mypaymail.io

3) Adding new handles

In addition to your assigned handle you can create more handles as on the left side of the form. Each handle will cost $0.85 cents. You can use any amount of payment destination you wish.

4) What is interesting is the custom domian option on the right side.

If you or your organisation uses a custom domain for your emails, those emails can be linked to your payment destination. This means that anybody can pay you by sending money to your email address not your mypaymail handle.

I reached out to mypaymail on the process and they responded with this message.

"What DNS service provider are you using? Could you send me a screenshot of your zone editor?"

If you have a DNS provider that you have to pay for you can use the zone editor to enter the details.

and,

There is an easier way to set up the DNS records but it only works with https://www.ionos.com/ currently. So if you buy a domain from them, an autoconfiguration button appears and it will edit the DNS recods for you. 

IONOS by 1&1 » Your Host Matters. A lot. IONOS » The brand by 1&1 for Mail, Domains and Websites - We are the leading European Web Host und Specialist for Cloud Solutions. www.ionos.com

also interesting is 

"We are not far from getting Godaddy support, hopefully I will hear from them this week."

This is a huge development for BSV. You can actually pay a real active email address!! 

But!!! Yes there is a but........

"Unfortunately, Gmail does not support Paymail, so we cannot use Gmail Paymails. But you can buy a domain, create a Paymail and start using it. Later, if you want to use the same Paymail as your email address, you can buy a GSuite or Office 365 package."

Unfortunately you have to pay for the service.

So, If I send some money to someones email address will he be able to set up moneybutton and receive that money?

"Currently, the Paymail account needs to exist when your wallet makes the payment. Otherwise, your wallet will return an error. The way to send money to an email address today is to create a wallet and then register a Paymail that matches your email address using a custom domain.

The idea of sending a payment to someone that does not have a Paymail account but has an email address is quite interesting. Also free email accounts are key, as you say. We will be trying to come up with innovative ways to address these issues in the medium term."

What about a smart contract? I link my friends email to a moneybutton account. This allows me to send to his email. He then has to create his own moneybutton account and automatically receive the payment.

And their reply is most interesting

"I just had an idea similar to what you are describing. We need to implement a couple of features to make it possible but it think it is doable."

DOABLE!!!

Yes this means that you can onboard all your friends by sending them money! How many people can refuse that. And if you make this viral with a referral incentive --- Kaboom! Moon Moon Moon.

A word of thanks to Pol Moreno Yeste @ mypaymail for his help.

BTC is in trouble. Chain Death Spiral Looms. BSV Wins!

BTC hashrate dropped from 136 THs to 95 THs

Block difficulty just adjusted (26/3/2020) at block 622944

Latest block mined is 622986

Next difficulty adjustment is at 624960

Average block time for the last 2016 blocks was 11 minutes 54 secs

Current time to mine a block have reached 20 minutes. This loss of hashrate is serious and could result in the chain grinding to a halt.

What cause the loss of hashrate?

Economics! For some miners it has become unprofitable to mine and they are switching off their machines. All machines of the S9 generation will be unprofitable. The current economic climate and lock downs all over the world must also be a factor. I suppose it would be hard to convince the police that you have to go to work because bitcoin mining is an essential service.

Why is the price still holding?

There was a huge price collapse from $8000 to $5000 on 13 March and since then it has recovered to just over $6000. However it has been a phenomenon of selling the top. Whales are exiting!!

BCH and BSV

Most institutional investors would move out of crypto entirely until the scene settles. BCH and BSV do not suffer from hashrate gyrations because blocks adjust dynamically. However both will be undergoing halving in the next 14 days. The block subsidy will halve from 12.5 to 6.25. This is a 50% reduction in revenue if the price stays the same.

What will become obvious is that on BSV the income from transaction fees is increasing even reaching 50 coins yesterday. After halving only 900 coins will be mined per day. If this trend continues miners will start mining BSV as it will be much more profitable than mining BCH after the halving.

BTC is in trouble. It may finally succumb to the dreaded Chain Death Spiral.

The Coming Global Recession and BSV

Come Monday ( 24 Feb 2020 ) the whole world will believe that a global recession is upon us. The black swan event that triggers this change in sentiment and perception is Covid 19. We have all now seen the effects of this virus and the toll it has taken on the Chinese economy. What has happened in China will now be repeated worldwide. This is now a pandemic.

Covid 19 is a global pandemic.

The most significant revelation is that the virus is contagious 3 to 5 days after infection and the individual exhibits no symptoms until two weeks later if at all. Individuals have tested negative several times and only to test positive days later. The reason is that the Polymerase Chain Reacion (PCR) test that they use can only detect the virus if the viral load is "significant enough". Under this threshold the test will return a negative reading but the individual is contagious. This was what happened to the testing of health workers. This means that health workers who, presume are tested daily returning negative result but is contagious and infecting everyone they come across in their work until they tested positive.

With the virus spreading within the population two months before it was even identified as a new strain, the virus would have had the opportunity to spread worldwide. Like in China those who were sick outside of China would have assumed that they just had the flu until the world was alerted and they started testing for it.

It is too late. Covid 19 is with us like the common flu. The good news is that for the majority the effects are mild. As to how lethal the virus is, the jury is still out. The best estimate is 1 - 2 % and mostly among the weak and old.

Another interesting observation is that there could be several "flavours" of the virus and that a person can be reinfected with the reinfection being even more serious. This is a nightmare scenario if true. ( There are 4 strains of the Dengue fever virus and immunity from one does not apply to the other three )

World in recession.

GDP output in China is expected to be negative for January and February with the country in quarantine and shutdown. Being the second largest economy, a source for global tourism, investments and a major hub in the global supply chain the whole world is affected.

With this sentiment and perception dawning on the world economy, every country in the world will embark upon fiscal and monetary policies to dampen the effects of the oncoming recession.

Most central banks have been printing money ( monetary policy ) and the result was inflation in assets and stock market. The real economy was largely untouched because a deflationary cycle was occurring in the real economy with products being ever cheaper due to efficiencies, economies of scale and globalisation.

The tables are now turning. Come Monday we could see a crash in the stock market starting in Asia when we expect that company profits will be gravely affected. Money printing in this environment will not prop up the market which means that it may flow into the real economy pushing up inflation.

The problem is that most countries cannot afford inflation and rising interest rates. This only leaves the option of negative interest rates with ever increasing amount of money printing. The world will also be on the fast track to digital currencies as negative interest rates is ineffective without it. Without a digital economy negative interest rates will drive people to take their money out of the banking system.

Money printing and BSV

Money printing will not save the stock market but what about house prices? Presumably money printing in conjunction with negative interest rates should push up house prices. However in countries where house prices have been fueled by investments from China may see a reverse. With China going into inevitable recession the Chinese government may "request" that their citizens bring back money and investments that they have parked overseas.

We may see a movement of money into the crypto markets. This means huge increase in BTC and all cryptos.

Tie into this scenario nation states putting their national digital token on the BSV blockchain because it is the only public blockchain that can scale. This will lead to turmoil in the crypto market as well but BSV will come out the victor. When someone with the stature of Tom Lee from Fundstrat who clearly understands and warms towards BSV we can bet that behind the scenes positive things are happening for BSV.


BSV will emerge the winner

We may see everyone in crypto rejoicing in the short term but this will be short live. BSV will emerge the victor in the end.

Twetch will win. Your invitation to join Twetch

Twetch is Twitter on BSV. More than that it is Twitter monetised and permanently recorded on the BSV blockchain.

Why Twetch will win?

Older technology will be superseded by a newer technology if the new technology offers new features that are cheaper, faster, and/or better than the old.

Being cheaper and faster may not be the killer features to replace an entrench system but additional features that are useful and indispensable will. Monetisation on Twetch is this additional feature.

For Twitter, trolling is toxic. It kills user experience. Trolling is endemic because it is free. Putting an economic cost. even a fraction of a cent will bring the worst effects of trolling under control. Trolls cannot commercialise their business model on Twetch because it will be too expensive.

Putting your money where your mouth is. How true! When you have to put your money where your mouth is - You trend towards truth and honesty. Doing otherwise will cost you money.

Your invitation to join Twetch

https://twet.ch/inv/aaef0c7e