How bad will be the economic impact from Covid 19.

The first case of Covid 19 was thought to be on 31st December. The belief was that the source was the wet market in Wuhan China, where because of the Chinese's penchant for consuming wild animals for heath reasons the virus jumped from animal to humans. Irony perhaps but very reasonable and believable that the virus jumped from bats to humans through an intermediate host thought to be snakes.

Fast forward and we have a paper published in the Lancet medical journal, about a new study by Chinese researchers claiming that the first case of Covid 19 was actually on 1 December. The person was elderly and lived several bus connections away from the Wuhan market. As he was sick he never visited the market.

We now know that the incubation period could be more than 14 days and that a person is contagious before showing any symptoms. Most will recover without showing any symptoms at all, and yet will be spreading the virus without ever knowing it. This was probably why the contagion was so widespread in Wuhan as it is so densely populated and infected people were spreading it around without knowing it.

The research was published in the Lancet which presumably will have been peer reviewed and is credible. If this is true then we still do not know the identity patient 0 and the source. They will probably discover this through DNA tracing but for now it remains a mystery.

Covid 19 is now with us for good, deal with it.

Quarantine is probably no longer a way to ward off this virus now. By its' nature of being contagious even before symptoms shows and even after recovery, there will be no way to prevent this virus from spreading to any country in the world. No country will be spared. It will only be a matter of time. The emphasis will have to move towards detecting and treatment until we have a vaccine.

Detecting

The first thing is to identify it from the common flu. The PCR method of detecting takes over a day and is thus slow however a Mexican company have a machine that can detect the virus within 3 hours and the unit is mobile. On detection the said patients can then be treated as best as a country's health services can offer.

Treatment

Fortunately for a majority of people (80%) will only experience mild or no symptoms. The virus does not seem to affect young children or even infants. Of those who show symptoms most will recover. The fatality rate is currently expected to be between 1 - 2 % or even lower. Better figures will be fort coming as we get better methods of detection.

One cure which seem to work is to use plasma donated by patients who have recovered. Another treatment that seem to work is an antiretroviral drug used to treat aids. A vaccine is on the way.

Covid 19 may not kill you but it can kill the economy and that may kill you.

For all the rage, Covid 19 is not as bad as we fear. The fear factor factor however will be devastating. Even in countries where there are no cases, the fear of contracting the disease will cause people to stay indoors. This is devastating for any service driven economy. This mentality and behavior will plunge any country into recession.

The best thing we can do is to stay calm and prepare.



Lancet medical journal report on BBC
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200221-coronavirus-the-harmful-hunt-for-covid-19s-patient-zero

Mexican Covid 19 detection
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eczKyj5Pqs8

Plasma treatment covid 19
https://www.industryglobalnews24.com/recovered-patient-s-blood-plasma-treatment-curing-covid19-infections

Antiretroviral Aids drug to treat Covid 19 cases
https://www.plenglish.com/index.php?o=rn&id=52152&SEO=kaletra-antiretroviral-test-against-covid-19-in-south-korea

The Coming Global Recession and BSV

Come Monday ( 24 Feb 2020 ) the whole world will believe that a global recession is upon us. The black swan event that triggers this change in sentiment and perception is Covid 19. We have all now seen the effects of this virus and the toll it has taken on the Chinese economy. What has happened in China will now be repeated worldwide. This is now a pandemic.

Covid 19 is a global pandemic.

The most significant revelation is that the virus is contagious 3 to 5 days after infection and the individual exhibits no symptoms until two weeks later if at all. Individuals have tested negative several times and only to test positive days later. The reason is that the Polymerase Chain Reacion (PCR) test that they use can only detect the virus if the viral load is "significant enough". Under this threshold the test will return a negative reading but the individual is contagious. This was what happened to the testing of health workers. This means that health workers who, presume are tested daily returning negative result but is contagious and infecting everyone they come across in their work until they tested positive.

With the virus spreading within the population two months before it was even identified as a new strain, the virus would have had the opportunity to spread worldwide. Like in China those who were sick outside of China would have assumed that they just had the flu until the world was alerted and they started testing for it.

It is too late. Covid 19 is with us like the common flu. The good news is that for the majority the effects are mild. As to how lethal the virus is, the jury is still out. The best estimate is 1 - 2 % and mostly among the weak and old.

Another interesting observation is that there could be several "flavours" of the virus and that a person can be reinfected with the reinfection being even more serious. This is a nightmare scenario if true. ( There are 4 strains of the Dengue fever virus and immunity from one does not apply to the other three )

World in recession.

GDP output in China is expected to be negative for January and February with the country in quarantine and shutdown. Being the second largest economy, a source for global tourism, investments and a major hub in the global supply chain the whole world is affected.

With this sentiment and perception dawning on the world economy, every country in the world will embark upon fiscal and monetary policies to dampen the effects of the oncoming recession.

Most central banks have been printing money ( monetary policy ) and the result was inflation in assets and stock market. The real economy was largely untouched because a deflationary cycle was occurring in the real economy with products being ever cheaper due to efficiencies, economies of scale and globalisation.

The tables are now turning. Come Monday we could see a crash in the stock market starting in Asia when we expect that company profits will be gravely affected. Money printing in this environment will not prop up the market which means that it may flow into the real economy pushing up inflation.

The problem is that most countries cannot afford inflation and rising interest rates. This only leaves the option of negative interest rates with ever increasing amount of money printing. The world will also be on the fast track to digital currencies as negative interest rates is ineffective without it. Without a digital economy negative interest rates will drive people to take their money out of the banking system.

Money printing and BSV

Money printing will not save the stock market but what about house prices? Presumably money printing in conjunction with negative interest rates should push up house prices. However in countries where house prices have been fueled by investments from China may see a reverse. With China going into inevitable recession the Chinese government may "request" that their citizens bring back money and investments that they have parked overseas.

We may see a movement of money into the crypto markets. This means huge increase in BTC and all cryptos.

Tie into this scenario nation states putting their national digital token on the BSV blockchain because it is the only public blockchain that can scale. This will lead to turmoil in the crypto market as well but BSV will come out the victor. When someone with the stature of Tom Lee from Fundstrat who clearly understands and warms towards BSV we can bet that behind the scenes positive things are happening for BSV.


BSV will emerge the winner

We may see everyone in crypto rejoicing in the short term but this will be short live. BSV will emerge the victor in the end.