After halving miners must morph into Transaction Processors

As I write this we are just a day past the BSV halving, two days past BCH halving, and another 30 days before BTC halving.

A note on crypto prices

Price changes in alts follows the price of  BTC because alts are  mainly paired against BTC on almost all exchanges. This will remain the case unless we can decouple from BTC.

One way that this can happen is to pair against Tether (USDT). As of today it has a marketcap of 6.5 billion, an increase of about 2.5 billion recently. However Tether will need a much higher marketcap in order to replace BTC.

Another is if a clear winner to emerge out of the BTC, BCH and BSV hash war.

Mining Economics

For the next 30 days most miners will mine the BTC chain. BCH and BSV chains will revert to their foundation miners Btc.com for BCH and Coingeek for BSV.

Mining at a loss, hodling and waiting for the price to rise.

If the halving of BCH and BSV is any guide, BTC. will most likely maintain price prices on a bearish tone. This means that BTC mining will also be unprofitable.

It is unlikely that miners will continue to mine at a loss. Less efficient miners will have to leave until the difficulty adjusts for mining to be profitable again.

Some miners may decide to mine and hold until the price increases, but this is a risky proposition.

For BTC the Chain Death Spiral also threatens like "Democleas Sword".  BTC will be at maximum difficulty after halving, A huge drop in hashrate could trigger it.

Mining dynamics after BTC halving.

Opportunistic mining - On BCH and BTC difficulty is adjusted every block. Some miners will wait until the difficulty adjust low enough before they start mining on the chain. This is more noticeable on the BCH chain.

Price hodling - Miners leaving the BTC chain may choose to mine on BCH or BSV as the chance of these coins doubling will be higher because of it's lower prices.

Pick a winner - This will be hard to predict.

Transaction fee model - BSV wins as it is the only blockchain designed for this.

It is all about transactions

Bitcoin was designed for mining revenue to transition over to transaction fees. The halving in block subsidy was designed to incentivise this. It is incomprehensible how BTC supporters can ignore this simple reality? In the graph above we can clearly see that Fee percentage in blocks between BCH and BSV have diverge considerably after the halving. This trend will continue. BSV will continue to increase the number of transactions per block because it is designed for users to write data to the blocchain.

The major transaction volume on BSV are users writing weather data ( weathersv) and exchange data (preev) to the blockchain. However on the horizon are real enterprise users in supply chain management (unisot) (kowr) and medical data (EHR).


A new model for miners as transaction processors.

There will be a paradigm change. Miners need security of income in order to justify spending millions in hard and soft infrastructure. They will become transaction processors.

They will be able to contract with large enterprise users exclusively to process their transactions thus guaranteeing a reliable income stream. Such contracts will be hard to disrupt as a bond of trust will develop between the parties. It will also incentivise the miner to improve their service in order to keep their customers.

Buy the dip sell the top

For BSV supporters, an opportunity exist to buy the dip and sell the top until BTC halving because it will be volatile. Risky, but if you can time it right, there is an opportunity to multiply your holdings. Use wallets like Exodus, Coinomi and move between BSV and USDT. Warning - It is risky and very difficult to time the bottom and the top and too easy to get emotionally involved. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Remember most people "can pick it but cannot time it".

BSV flipped BCH in January but could not maintain the lead. In all likelihood BSV will again flip BCH before BTC halving. If this happens look for BSV to moon and win the hash wars as miners chase profits.

BTC is in trouble. Chain Death Spiral Looms. BSV Wins!

BTC hashrate dropped from 136 THs to 95 THs

Block difficulty just adjusted (26/3/2020) at block 622944

Latest block mined is 622986

Next difficulty adjustment is at 624960

Average block time for the last 2016 blocks was 11 minutes 54 secs

Current time to mine a block have reached 20 minutes. This loss of hashrate is serious and could result in the chain grinding to a halt.

What cause the loss of hashrate?

Economics! For some miners it has become unprofitable to mine and they are switching off their machines. All machines of the S9 generation will be unprofitable. The current economic climate and lock downs all over the world must also be a factor. I suppose it would be hard to convince the police that you have to go to work because bitcoin mining is an essential service.

Why is the price still holding?

There was a huge price collapse from $8000 to $5000 on 13 March and since then it has recovered to just over $6000. However it has been a phenomenon of selling the top. Whales are exiting!!

BCH and BSV

Most institutional investors would move out of crypto entirely until the scene settles. BCH and BSV do not suffer from hashrate gyrations because blocks adjust dynamically. However both will be undergoing halving in the next 14 days. The block subsidy will halve from 12.5 to 6.25. This is a 50% reduction in revenue if the price stays the same.

What will become obvious is that on BSV the income from transaction fees is increasing even reaching 50 coins yesterday. After halving only 900 coins will be mined per day. If this trend continues miners will start mining BSV as it will be much more profitable than mining BCH after the halving.

BTC is in trouble. It may finally succumb to the dreaded Chain Death Spiral.

Bitcoin SV Next Bull Run

When will Bitcoin SV next bull run take place?

Guess we are all still buzzing over the last BSV price run up! When the dust finally settled BSV is up 300% and holding. So why did the last price hop happened? The main excuse was that CSW got the keys to his bitcoins! I commented then that it is nonsense as it was only a rumour and even if true the impact will be negligible. If the fear was that he would dump BTC to push up BSV then BTC should have experience a significant drop in price.

Those who are into BSV know that it is the original and real Bitcoin and are convince that it will be the only blockchain on which all blockchain apps will be built. The run up in price is only the first phase of existing whales and hedge funds building a position and new money coming into BSV.

Had it just been a CSW rumour then  BSV's price would have drop lower than from where it started - about $90. Instead it has settled around $300. The likely scenario is that this is the new floor from which the next price push will take place possibly to settle again between $600 and $900.

Timing a bull run is not a science. We can be sure that BSV will make its' biggest price break when hedge funds are convinced that BSV is the real Bitcoin. This will happen when all the arguments against BSV crumbles one by one and we reach tipping point in public perception first within the crypto community then in the wider public.

With that in mind the start of the next run should happen soon after the Genesis upgrade faultlessly. With that we should see all the apps timing for this event launch on the BSV blockchain. This burst in activity especially in monetized social media apps will pull many within the crypto community towards BSV.

How will it play out?

We should first see a sell-offs in alt as the smart developers and investors realise that their projects will work better on BSV. As before the move will be gradual but we will see it as a match between BCH and BSV.

It is quite surprising that BCH has maintained even the valuation it has now, with such low number of transactions on its' blockchain. Perhaps BCH supporters believe that it is digital silver to BTC'd digital gold. The truth is that with micro-transactions a reality, there is no need for digital silver, bronze or gold for that matter.

So the next phase will be a seesawing battle between BSV and BCH with the BSV whales taking every opportunity to build on their portfolio as the price moves in their favour. I suspect that BCH supporters will fight hard to prop up the value to stay ahead of BSV. If true this behaviour can be taken advantage off.

This phase will complete when BSV move to number 4 on coinmarket ranking indisputably, which will then trigger the next phase which is the race to NO 1.

WOW The Skip Happened ! Now For The Flip

When I wrote this article yesterday ( The Coming BSV Skip and Flip ) BSV was sitting at $170. Woke up this morning and it is $336 and has already surpass BCH at $331. No, I do not have a crystal ball or any inside information. I just noticed the volatility of BCH hashrate and suspected that something must be up with the Unknown Miners.

If BCH supporters are really desperately trying to keep their hashrate up by renting mining rigs then the game is really up. It is only a matter of time, as this will be a futile exercise. They will not have enough money to keep up with the rising price of BSV. It is a vicious feedback loop. Now it has happened. There will of course be resistance with market support but the outcome is inevitable. The fundamental value proposition for BCH is flawed.

For my observance this was my reward.

You've been permanently banned from participating in r/Bitcoincash

subreddit message via /r/Bitcoincash[M] sent 9 hours ago

You have been permanently banned from participating in r/Bitcoincash. You can still view and subscribe to r/Bitcoincash, but you won't be able to post or comment.

Note from the moderators:

Trolling

If you have a question regarding your ban, you can contact the moderator team for r/Bitcoincash by replying to this message.

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This is the first time that I have ever been banned and I have not posted there in 2 years. Guess the truth must hurt. Can't be that bad really because BCH price is actually up by about $70 since my post.

So the The Skip is over. Now the mainstream crypto presses will be pushing hard on the Tulip Trust narrative. Come on be serious. Anybody with common sense can see that it is all about the technology. Why is it that hard to fathom?

Unconfirmed if and buts about the tulip trust even if true, cannot account for the huge run up in price. It means that there is real demand especially when you realise that BSV price have been going up steadily since mid December and in reality since the delisting. 

Will The Flip happen now? Of course. More people are starting to believe or hedging their bets just in case.

Pump and Dump

Will there be a huge dump coming up? Unlikely. Those holding BSV are believers. Being a very divisive 3 way tug of war between the 3 coins those who wants to dump have done so already. The BSV community is even smaller than BCH, and those who are invested for the long term will hold on to their coins, which creates scarcity and more upward price pressure.

There will of course be attempts to push the price lower by traders but the variation will be no more than 30% at most and will be good opportunity to buy the dips. 

Watch the hashrate

I have explained what I believe will be the mechanics of The Flip so I will not repeat it here. As hashrate moves over to BSV, BTC's blocktime will rise and the mempool will bloat as well. This will be the start of the dreaded Chain Death Spiral for BTC. 

The average time between blocks for BTC is rising fast and is already at 17 minutes almost taking twice as long for blocks to confirm. 

Now that everybody have seen what happened BTC supporters will surely put up a valiant effort to prevent the Flipping. There will be lies, misinformation, market support, etc and again the outcome is inevitable. The value proposition that BTC is digital gold is also flawed. The great hope for BTC in the lightning network is also in trouble with security ans scalability issues.

As more people who have substantial financial stake in BTC realise, or start to feel uncomfortable about this, they will start to hedge by at least equalising the number of each coin held. This will of course drive up the price of already tightly held BSV. In a rising market miners will also withhold coins, selling only if they have to further restricting supply. Those selling in the hope of buying back on the dip if are unable to do so will quickly re-buyback at a higher price which will again add to upward price pressure.

Why should BSV succeed.

It has a useful value proposition anchored on a stable protocol with massive scaling.

Other ancillary reasons

1) The Bitcoin founder is behind the chain and supports the development of the chain. I have believed that Craig was Satoshi when he first turned up at this discussion back in June 2017. As more people accept this fact the negative connotation of Craig's effect on BSV price in the past will reverse. I also wrote another piece on why it matters.

2) The developer tools available to support building on BSV. The emphasis is on building useful apps, not on currency and price. The only way to get mass adoption is to get the masses using Bitcoin without them knowing that they are. 

3) The nChain team and Bitcoin Association are always announcing new apps, tools and developments. There is a sense of growth and vitality.

4) The BSV development team always deliver on their promises usually ahead of deadline scheduled.

5) The community is alot more friendly.

That said, all that is left to do is to sit back and watch events roll out as predicted. It is a great time to be alive and watch this drama play out.

The Coming BSV Skip and Flip

For the moment all eyes are on the huge price increase of BSV from around 98 USD to 170 USD over the last week. An increase of over 70% and would most probably exceed $200 soon. So what is happening?

For those who believe in the underlying technology of BSV the reason is clear and inevitable. BSV is the original protocol as described in the Bitcoin whitepaper and despite the timeline BTC and BCH are the forks off the true protocol. A "Back To The Future" scenario!

The main theme of this post is a prediction that BSV will soon surpass the price of BCH (The Skip) and thereafter go on to surpass the price of BTC ( The Flip ). Contrary to our intuitive nature of believing in the slow rate of change in the crypto sphere, these events will happen quite quickly, because theses events are very much determined by the mining hashrate.

For most of 2019 the hashrate for BCH was about 2% and BSV around 1% of the total hashrate. This week the hashrate in both these coins have doubled to 4% and 2% respectively. This means that miners are finding it more profitable to mine these two coins or the supporters of these coins are renting hashes to support their chain.

Notice the amount of "unknown" miners on the BCH and BSV blockchain and none on BTC. The hashrate on BCH have been fluctuating between 1.5 to 4.3% recently. For BCH, it is dangerous for its' hashrate to fall below that of BSV as it would very quickly be reflected in the price of these two coins.

Unknown Miners

Unknown miners have always been a part of Bitcoin mining, but the significant part that it is now playing on BCH and BSV is unprecedented. Seeing that is is more than 3%, the increase must be a switch from BTC mining either as a result of mining rentals or BTC miners dedicating some of their hashrates towards BCH and BSV without reveling themselves as doing so.

The increase in blocktime on BTC is starting to show. Keep an eye on this developing situation.

There is still much debate going on about which is the true Bitcoin and which will survive. Miners are business people and they will only be motivated by profit. It does not matter to them which coin wins as they will always mine the most profitable coin.

Prior to November 2018 the price of BCH which included BSV fluctuated a great deal but after that date BCH price have mainly trended downwards.

BSV price on the other hand trended downwards because it was delisted on many leading exchanges but has since trended upwards against BTC as oppose to BCH. The price drop as a result of delisting must be looked upon as a manipulated event and accounted for when studying the chart above.

Against BCH the price of BSV is also clearly trending upwards.

All these events must be looked at as part of the continuing struggle between BTC, BCH and BSV as to which is the real Bitcoin. When 3 coins are competing on the same mining algorithm only one will win. This is a winner takes all scenario.

The Skip
It is dangerous for BCH if its' hashrate falls below that of BSV as this will soon be reflected in the price. Because the price of BSV have been on the uptrend we can expect that some miners are dedicating a little of their hashrate to mining BSV as a defensive move. These will mainly be the source of the Unknown miners we see on the BSV blockchain.

The dilemma for BCH supporters is that if they do not do something about the mining hashrate their coin will be in danger. As price is not a real factor in the volume of Unknown miners on the BCH blockchain we can only surmise that it is the result of hashrate rentals by BCH supporters.

This situation is unsustainable as the more BSV price increase against the more hash rate they must rent from the available rental pool and also carry the losses on the BCH mined as BCH price trends against that of BSV.

This will all come to a head when BSV price exceeds that of BCH. This is the Skip event, after which the price of BCH will move down sharply. BCH goal of becoming digital cash will be over. It is not possible to be used as a digital currency if your market cap is less than 2 Billion USD.

The Flip
During the BTC and BCH war, BCH overtaking and replacing BTC was known in the crypto community as the flippening. This did not happen and BTC successfully retain the overwhelming majority of the Bitcoin hashrate.

BCH survived the Chain Death Spiral because it had the Emergency Difficulty Adjustment programmed in. It was able to retain a percentage of mining hashrate commensurate with its' price for profitable mining. This also applied to BSV after it forked from BCH.

We have already seen today at least 3% of hashrate moving away from BTC. As the battle between BSV and BCH intensify we will see more hashrate moving away.  The BTC blockchain is acutely vulnerable to loss in hashrate and the Chain Death Spiral. We may start seeing a slowdown in BTC blocktime in the next few days.

The halvening of the BTC, BCH and BSV will have a large impact on the price and hashrate distribution between these coins. If prices do not double to maintain profitability, it must be met with increasing value collected through transaction fees. Only BSV have the capacity to gain more from transaction fees per block than block subsidy.

Note the steady increasing trend in transaction fees over block reward for BSV.

Soon after The Slip, our attention will be turn to The Flippening round two BSV against BTC. This time there will be a real difference in ideology between the two chains.

A coin can only be relevant if it is useful. It will not be useful to the masses unless it can scale. Here BSV clearly trumps BTC as it can already achieve thousands of transaction comfortably while BTC is still stuck at a maximum of 7 transactions a second. Large blocks means lower cost per transaction leading to new applications built around micro transactions. Usefulness brings mass adoption. BTC is clearly not geared towards mass adoption but towards being used by a minority as digital gold. This will not succeed as it requires Governments to adopt BTC in their currency reserve in order to push the price of BTC towards a million dollars a coin perhaps. This is unlikely because participants in the world monetary system will not want to see huge chuck of wealth in BTC they do not control.

BSV on the other hand will achieve this by default. In striving for scaling and mass adoption and it will become embedded into all our lives at a global level. National currencies will be tokenised on the BSV blockchain and this will be the "Killer App" that will cement BSV as the real Bitcoin.

With scaling comes mass adoption leading to The Flippening.

Last Note For The Skeptics.
If you are still skeptical about the above then this chart may change your thinking. Using BCH as a base every crypto coin including BTC is negative except for BSV.

The Flippening

https://bitcoinandtheblockchain.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-flippening-btc-to-bch-wealth.html

https://bitcoinandtheblockchain.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-flippening-btc-to-bch-last-mile.html

https://bitcoinandtheblockchain.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-flippening-120-billion-reasons-why.html

High Fees Is An Extinction Event

Make no mistake. The rats are scrambling off this BTC sinking ship. High Fees is an extinction event. Like all extinction events there is always a group of loutish and very vocal band of hard core deniers. Their arguments are hypocritical, and their reasoning always seem incomplete.

BTC dominance below 40%

Today BTC dominance dropped to 38.4%. Total Market Cap is still 600 billion. This means that value have flowed to other currencies this time to Ripple. Value flows to crypto through BTC because it is the main bridge with all fiat currencies.

This happened before when value flowed to Ethereum. That was stopped in its' track because Ethereum encountered several major problems. ( DAO, more hacks and scaling issues )

Will Ripple become the new No 1 crypto coin?

Possible but it will be temporary, until BCH takes over. This upsurge is a pump and FOMO event, timely as many investors are looking to exit BTC. The fact that bankers like it strengthens their believe that this could be a major crypto coin. Again do not be fooled. Ripple is nothing but a token. Issued by a central authority. 38 billion are in circulation and 62 billion is in reserve.

It is not a mineable coin ( POW or POS) It is just issued (printed) out of thin air. Its value is in saving banks and financial institutions billions in interbank transfer fees. For this system to work it needs a large market cap. It certainly has that now. Banking transfer systems like SWIFT will not be silent in the face of this development eating into their business model.

It will be an intermediary token for financial institutions to move value among themselves. In short Ripple is not an everyday currency to be used by common folks. I don't think there is even a wallet for it. I suspect that most are held on exchanges and by the banks.

High fees is an extinction event.

Anybody who has a sizeable BTC holding is certainly now worried that their "store of value" may be in jeopardy. As we can see most of this value is moving to Ripple. When they realise that Ripple cannot be a store of value, much of that value will look for a new home - Bitcoin Cash.

Bitcoin Cash is the real bitcoin. It always was. The fork was BTC which added Segwit. Bitcoin Cash is still the same Bitcoin that I knew and loved in 2013. More and more people are beginning to realise this, as they find that they can no longer use their bitcoin to transact. All businesses that use to accept bitcoin have stopped accepting it.

The only argument left is for it to be a "store of value" and that is gone too, now that value have moved to Ripple! of all things. I guess people still want to trust banks. But they have to realise that banks do not own Ripple, and Ripple does not represent shares in the banking system.

Bitcoin will still achieve valuation of 100,000 and even 1 million a coin.

However that is in reference to Bitcoin Cash. This will happen when BTC is booted off the bitcoin mining algorithm. For me this can't happen soon enough. Bring on the Chain Death Spiral.

What are miners are waiting for? They are in control of BTC's fate.

What do you know. BTC's hashrate just plummeted 6EH from 18 to 12 and still dropping. Maybe this is the flippening happening now. Watch BCH price action to confirm.

Till Death Do Us Part - The Partening

BTC : " Where should I go? What should I do?"

BCH : " Frankly my dear, I don't give a damm "

             

This big block/small block saga like the story above, started well. So what happened? And as the question begs. Where should BTC go? What can BTC do?

Sadly, for BTC there are no good outcomes. The Chain Death Spiral has set in and it can only have one ending. The BTC chain will come to a grinding halt, because the little hashing that is left, will not be enough to take it past the next difficulty adjustment, if it makes it past the one coming up.

At the very core,(pun intended) the real difference between BCH and BTC is that people embracing BCH believe in the protocol while people embracing BTC believe in the development team. Because the protocol was held hostage by the development team, this current state of affair arose. Never again should we allow, or even make it possible for any faction, not even miners, hold the protocol hostage.

We are now watching the end game play out. The value of BTC is crumbling. The parties holding the price up will soon give up completely. It is futile, When the chain in question is impossible to use, it does not have a value. Already 38.95% of the hashrate have migrated to BCH and they are never going back, despite wishful assurance that they will, arguably to chase better profits. In reality, for a large majority of miners, the bitter experience of the past have been too painful. In addition it also does not make any sense to be mining on both chains.

A miner now earns 83% less, mining on the BTC chain. In addition he wont be able to cash out for at least 2 days and by then the prices could have fallen further. No commercial miner can absorb these losses for long, no matter how strongly he supports the losing chain. His losses are uncapped, unknown and uncontrollable. Contrast this situation to that of the initial early BCH miner. He could allocate and budget for a cash burn until the project succeeds. His losses are capped, known and controllable.

BTC price may never recover. It will slide downwards with decreasing usability, The BTC chain may never be profitable to mine on again. On the other hand the price of BCH will trend upwards with increasing hashrate migration.

The End

Soon, BCH block height will surpass BCT to become the longest chain. By then it may even have the higher amount of hashing power. The BTC chain will just grind to a halt. It may not even see the next difficulty adjustment. The core team can move their agenda to Litecoin. The natural order and balance of the crypto universe will be restored. 

Related Articles

Chain Death Spiral - Watch In Real Time - Here

Will the real Bitcoin Please Stand Up - Here

A Tale Of Two Coins - Here

Bitcoin Cash Will Regain The Mantle To Be Bitcoin - Here

Chain Death Spiral - Here

Chain Death Spiral - Watch It In Real Time

You can watch the progress of the Chain Death Spiral in real time. Watch the progress of the orange line. Hover over it to follow the current block time. Normal block time is 10 minutes. It is already at 13 minutes and increasing as more hashrate migrates towards the BCH chain. The graph is changed so average is 6 blocks per hour look to see BTC going towards zero.

                                              Chain Death Spiral Real Time Monitor

                                                       Check above data here  ( block time and hash rate )

This graph will show you how much hashrate have migrated to the BCH chain, also in real time. As I write it is approaching 23%

                                                BTC to BCH Hashrate migration


The BCH chain is curently 1125 blocks behind the BTC chain. Click on the link for an update.  This next graph will give you the speed at which blocks are being found. If you divide 10 minutes by the speed you get the block time. So 10/3.6 equals 2.77 minutes for BCH and 10/0.87 equals 11.49 minutes for BTC. It will take 1125*2.77/60/24 = 2.16 days to find those 1125 blocks

                                                          Block Speed Monitor

At this rate the BCH chain will be longer than the BTC chain by Wednesday. Earlier if the hashrate migration is faster.

Another graph of interest is the difficulty retargeting.

                                                         Difficulty Retargeting Monitor

At this point  BTC will retarget in 2.49 days. The next difficulty can be seen here. Even when the difficulty adjust it will not be very different from the difficulty now as it is very close to the end of the 2016 blocks readjustment period. The problem for the BTC chain is that it must now keep this difficulty for another 2016 blocks with ever lengthening block times creeping in.

The BCH chain is set to retarget in 2.8 days. This next difficulty adjustment will still be well below that of the BTC chain. By this time the BCH chain is already longer and racing ahead.

In all likelihood if the BTC chain makes it to the next difficulty adjustment, it will never see another difficulty adjustment ever again.

How you process this data and understand the economics of what gives the blockchain value will determine if you make or lose money.

The next link will give you real time price action for Bitcoin Cash. Just look at the fiat exchange pairs as the BTC pairs will become meaningless. The Korean exchanges of Bitthumb, Korbit and Coinone. make up 60% of the market and are in fiat. Outside of Korean exchanges you can follow Bitfinex, Kraken and CEXio. Unfortunately the main exchanges of Gdax, Bitstamp, BTCC and Itbit have ignored Bitcoin Cash.

Coinmarket Bitcoin Cash Prices

Conclusion and Possible Outcomes.

BTC price at the moment is unrealistic. Someone is supporting the market at great cost in order to keep the price up as a drop in price will mean that BTC is less profitable to mine leading to more miners migrating.  The action is pointless and untenable. Miners will not want to mine a coin that they percieve will lose value by the time they come to sell. The hashrate migration to BCH will not be slowing down either.

So how much is a blockchain that becomes impossible to transact worth? I am afraid the answer must be zero. So these are the possible position and outcomes.

1) Hold BTC and BCH in equal amounts. This is the position you are in if you have not sold your BCH. So Coinbase did their customers a big favor by holding on to their tokens for them.

2) Sell your BTC and buy BCH or any other coin. The time window in which you can do this will shrink very quickly.

3) Buy BCH. Again one where the window of opportunity is closing rapidly. The speed of hashrate migration is the determining factor.

What can anybody do? I am afraid nothing really as we must now let events run its' course. Appealing to miners for support is not what Bitcoin is about. Bitcoin is strong only if the pure economic forces of individual profit is the motivator. Consensus by agreements is unnatural and will not work. The invisible hand of the market must be allowed to function without intervention.

BCH and BTC price will trend lower. How low is unknown but hold. The position will settle and reverse. This period of uncertainty will end and we will learn from it. Bitcoin will continue the journey and we will sail past 5000 again.

These are my opinions and not financial advise so use your own judgement. I have just given you the tools and told you how to use and interpret the result. I hope I am wrong. I pray I am wrong. We are in this position now. If you have another scenario let us hear it. You can't suggest burying you head in the sand!

Segwit would not help much. Very few people would use it. It takes time to gain acceptance and adoption. The same with lightning.


Related Articles

Will the real Bitcoin Please Stand Up - Here

A Tale Of Two Coins - Here

Bitcoin Cash Will Regain The Mantle To Be Bitcoin - Here

Chain Death Spiral - Here

Will The Real Bitcoin Please Stand Up. Please Stand Up.

Over 2600 years ago, far away in the mist of time, in ancient Turkey, the Lydians and the Medes had been at war for 5 years. According to the Greek philosopher Herodotus, in the year 585 BCE, in the midst of battle, there was a solar eclipse and day was turned into night. The Lydians and the Medes took it as an omen that the gods wanted them to stop fighting and so peace ensued.

Tomorrow 21 August 2017 there will be solar eclipse over large swathe of the USA. On this day the Big Blockers and Small Blockers who have been at war for nearly 5 years decided to lay down their keyboards and peace came upon us and the community was once again united.....LOL NOT.

Back to reality

Over the last 3 days the whole of crypto and mainstream media was ablaze with the news of the nearly five fold increase in BCH price to over 1000 USD, sweeping aside all predictions of its' early demise. Of course to those of us who are of the opinion that the BCH fork was a fork back to the original bitcoin, we are not at all surprised. It was rather expected and with the anticipation of more to come, until the Cashening.

Fitting in the pieces

Looking back, we learn that 55% of the trading volume over the last 24 hours amounting to 1.7 Billion USD, yes billion with a "B" was transacted on 3 South Korean exchanges. To put this in context, the total worldwide 24 hour trading volume for BTC was only 2.6 billion. More important was that the 1.7 billion was in fiat. Not BTC. It is clear now that BCH explosive price rise was a result of heavy buying from South Korea with "new money".

So why only South Korea and for BCH? There was no buying pressure from China or Japan. China played a huge part in BTC trade volume until the Chinese government clamp down on the exchanges. The slack was later picked up by Japan when the Japanese Government legalise Bitcoin on 1 April this year. Then on 24 July South Korea made bitcoin payments legal.

South Korea the world's 12 largest GDP and a East Asian Tiger economy made its' mark in the crypto world with a huge play in BCH. South Korea the home of Samsung with 17% share of the world mobile phone market is now officially in the crypto business, and they selected BCH as their vehicle.

This is significant and mark the difference in philosophy and approach by these 3 East Asian economic competitors. China chose to develop their own national digital currency. Japan decided to go with BTC and South Korea have chosen BCH. Who will be right?

Coming back to the 1.7 billion USD 24 hour trade in BCH. This amount of money cannot come from just ordinary citizens. Large institutions and perhaps even banks are involved. This play is not over. Not by a long shot. Expect to see higher and quicker price rises in BCH, especially when the rest of the world catches on to what is really happening.

Will the real Bitcoin please stand up.

Yesterday for the first time it became more profitable to mine BCH than BTC. Today at block 479808 BCH had its' first standard difficulty adjustment and is now only 7% the mining difficulty of BTC. These are watershed moments and marks the point at which miners will choose to mine the more profitable BCH chain, and initiating the dreaded Chain Death Spiral for BTC. So when will BCH replace BTC as the real Bitcoin?

In a Twitter post, Gavin Andresen said that he will refer to BCH as Bitcoin if it has the longest chain and his view is echoed throughout the community. Over the last 24 hours 139 BTC blocks and 263 BCH blocks were found respectively. This is a difference of 124 blocks. As of now the BCH chain is 1452 blocks behind  BTC. This means that in as little as 11 days and most probably earlier the BCH chain will overtake the BTC chain to become the longer chain. Will we then call BCH Bitcoin?

Another twist. Ryan Charles in his latest Youtube post suggested that BCH should just be called CASH. Wow. What a great idea. A totally left field proposition and yet on reflection its' simplicity is indeed powerful. BCH is exactly that - CASH - Spending Money.

So now we come back to the question of  between China, Japan and South Korea, which country chose correctly. My money is on South Korea. What's yours?



Related Articles

A Tale Of Two Coins - Here

Bitcoin Cash Will Regain The Mantle To Be Bitcoin - Here

Chain Death Spiral - Here

A tale of Two Coins

In 2005 Michael Burry discovered that the mortgage back securities that banks were selling to investors had included in them mortgages that were delinquent. This he recognised to be a fatal flaw and as history would record, he successfully engineered a long term bet against those securities in what we know today as "The Big Short".

That there were delinquent mortgages in a package of securities was not unknown. The idea was that returns from the good mortgages easily covered the small losses from the bad. The problem however was that there was an insatiable appetite for these products and investors were willing to accept ever higher level of risky mortgages in their basket, to the point where these sub-prime mortgages were "manufactured" to supply the demand. Investors drew comfort from the widely held but faulty notion that house prices will keep rising and the property market will never collapse. They were wrong, and we are still living the result of that folly, with nearly 10 years of recession/depression.

How is this relevant to Bitcoin?

In a previous article I pointed out that as a result of Bitcoin Cash, miners now have the option to mine BTC or BCH. Bitcoin without the Emergency Difficulty Adjuster (EDA) is vulnerable to a massive drop in hashing power which would lengthen the time between blocks to hours such as happen to BCH at the time of the fork. This is a disaster that BTC would never recover from because it does not have the protection of EDA.

The Bitcoin mainstream refused to acknowledge this, postulating that it would never happen and that miners will never do that. But that is not the point. The question is not if miners will or won't but if they can or could, and if it is the latter, then there is a non zero existential threat to the universally held notion of the indestructibility of Bitcoin. Investors who hold bitcoins as a store of value can wake up one morning to a black swan event that renders the value of their nest egg to zero. Projects and start-ups dependent on BTC holding value will collapse and fail.

To make matters worse BTC is also limited to 1MB blocks. This means that if only a fraction of mining power is lost to the bitcoin network, block time lengthens and the mempool bloats. Without the benefit of big blocks to clear the backlog, transaction fees increases to the point where the bitcoin blockchain becomes unusable, except to those willing to pay usurious fees.

Long block and block maturity time will drive miners to mine the BCH chain which is already more profitable. This causes a feedback loop which will inevitably lead to the dreaded Chain Death Spiral, and the collapse of the Bitcoin blockchain.

To argue that the BTC blockchain is more profitable to mine if higher fee rewards are taken into account, is oxymoronic to the extreme. It is the argument of a bias and disingenuous supporter or a greater fool. The fees are high precisely because blocks are small. Pinning their hopes on Segwit and/or 2MB is hopelessly inadequate and unrealistic for a technology that is on the cusp of explosive growth and mainstream adoption.

The time for action is now.

We must now confront the reality that Bitcoin has not 1 but 2 fatal flaws. EDA and 1MB blocks. The effects of the 1MB block is already evident with the mempool consistently over 45MB and a blockchain that is becoming increasingly unusable. In all probability, the Bitcoin blockchain is kept alive only by the good graces of miners honoring their increasingly untenable NYA agreement.

Why has there been no discussions of these fundamentally important and critical issues? The answer must be fear and greed. Fear that any such discussions will lead to the fall in the bitcoin price or a move to Bitcoin Cash. However, censoring and avoiding discussions purely out of greed is downright fraudulent. We have already seen what happens as a result of greed replacing reason in the sub-prime disaster. Not to address this "elephant in the room" may lead to a total loss of confidence by the public and ridicule by governments and banks, eager and waiting to regulate and control.

A new market quoted pair for Bitcoin Cash.

The market capitalisation of Bitcoin Cash is in excess of 10 Billion and rising. Many investors are now aware of the problems inherent in Bitcoin and have opted to move or hedge their position with Bicoin Cash. Herein lies a problem. The value of Bitcoin Cash is pegged to Bitcoin. What happens if the price of Bitcoin goes to zero? We need a contingency plan now. Bitcoin Cash should be traded and reported as currency pairs side by side against BTC. We must demand and insist this of the exchanges. This way if BTC fails the process of transition is seamless.

Contrary to popular misconception, Bitcoin Cash is the real bitcoin, and it was not a new fork, but a fork back to the original. In just two weeks it has taken the number three spot in market capitalisation and will soon replace Ethereum at number two. In the process it has eroded the value of all alt coins that have gained prominence because they were allowed to exploit their specific niches by eroding use and value from Bitcoin. The community is sending a message. Loud and Clear.

It is high time to put BCH back where it belongs.

Related Articles

Bitcoin Cash Will Regain The Mantle To Be Bitcoin - Here

Why is Bitcoin Price Rising - It May Not Be What You Think - Here

Bitcoin Fork - Smoke. Mirrors and a good game of Poker - Here

Chain Death Spiral - Here

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Will Regain The Mantle To Be Bitcoin

Here Is Why

                          BTC      BCH       TOT        BTC     BCH         BTC       BCH         BTC
                           ( Hash Power )                   ( Difficulty)           ( Block Time )    (mempool)

11 August            6600      338       6938         923        115       10.00         21            55
12 August            6199      416       6615         923        115       10.66         20            15
13 August            6808      440       7248         923        115         9.73         18.46       27
14 August            5951      522       6473         923        115        11.07        15.82       47
15 August            6966      647       7591         923        115          9.47        12.85       53
16 August            5984      484       6468         923        115        11.07        17.14       50

• Since 11 August Hash Power on the BCH chain has increased daily.
• Hash power on BTC chain on the other hand fluctuates from day to day, by up to 1000 PH and the mempool continues to grow.

The table above are snapshots taken at a point in time each day. Their individual states can be monitored in real time here*.  Scroll down to the hash rate. BTC hash rate is down to 4853 PH. This is more than 2000 PH below the table above and the mempool has now exceeded 65MB. I truly believe that the dreaded Chain Death Spiral has set in but is being "managed".

This large fluctuation of BTC hash rate could be the miners preventing difficulty from adjusting downwards, and at the same time growing the mempool. It is also possible that with over 1000 blocks to the next difficulty recalculation, we may not see another difficulty adjustment on BTC anytime soon.

It is uncanny that we see very little discussion and debate at the very top. It is as though the NYA agreement have settled everything. However make no mistake. What seem calm belies what is happening in the background. Like a duck on the water paddling furiously underneath.

Over at r/bitcoin talk seems to center around price and technology. Nothing about any negativity, usability or the growing mempool. Censorship of robust discussions is just downright deceitful. Especially if it is the de facto forum. It must quit being a propaganda organ. There will be consequences.

Undoubtedly the people around Segwit must be frantically on the phone, fax and email arguing and pleading with the miners. They can see the writing on the wall. Only 124 blocks were found in the last 24 hours. Block time have increased to 11 minutes and the mempool is in excess of 70MB. It is "too little too late". For many of the miners "Revenge is a dish best eaten cold".

Here is why Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Is The Real Bitcoin

It is the original bitcoin
It was hijacked from Gavin Andresen very surreptitiously by Adam Back with his Sidechain proposal. It was a "Trojan Horse" and together with the help of Blockstream, Theymos and the Core developers the process was completed. We the original community have finally regained control of the Bitcoin project, except that we have lost control of the name. This position is about to be redressed.

It does not have Segwit.
If you look at a Bitcoin file as AD. A being the address and D being the data, Segwit removes the address portion A, It is reduced to a hash and the original signature is discarded after it is verified. So if your "fingerprint" is the hash of all your signatures, the signatures are discarded after being checked, and only the "fingerprint" is kept. This is in effect what Segwit does.

The signatures are stored on another chain, but not the main chain. Some nodes will keep signatures, some only keep partial records, some will discard them entirely. If you ever need to refer back to the transaction to check on the signatures all you have is the hash. "The fingerprint". Satoshi's original design of bitcoin being an unbroken record of signatures is violated.

It allows for unlimited on-chain scaling.
A clear example of the disastrous effect of limiting the blocksize is the state of BTC now. The mempool is huge and getting bigger, fees are "over the top". Their intention is to push low fee transactions to side chains and the lightning network. These solutions don't exist yet.

The Core developers bought themselves over 2 years delaying and obfuscating on chain scaling, and yet have no working solutions. Meanwhile the user experience gets so bad that many users have sought other alternatives to transact. BCH in the meantime have mined an 8MB block.

It has more client implementations
BCH will have Bitcoin XT, Bitcoin Classic, Bitcoin Unlimited, Bitcoin ABC and more. Each with their own development team but all operating on the same chain. This diversity increases security, innovation and development of the whole ecosystem.

The part played by nChain in this saga should not be discounted. Without a doubt the most interesting improvements in Bitcoin is coming from nChain. Split Keys, Turing completeness are major developments. Whether you believe Craig Wright is Satoshi or not, there is no doubt he is the brightest and most fertile mind in the Bitcoin space, and he does not support Core and Segwit.

BCH survived, and that is all it needed to do

Bitcoin price is at an all time high, but it is not reflective of its' true value. Many people have been duped to sell their BCH without knowing the true state of affairs between BCH and BTC. Newbies entering the ecosystem have no choice but to enter through BTC. The price increase and media hype also drives more people to buy in at any price because of the fear of missing out. Please share this information to give everyone as much true information as they can before they part with their hard earned savings. For those who have missed out on $300 bitcoin, this is a second chance. BCH now has half the transaction volume of BTC but less than one tenth the price. BCH will be worth what BTC is now and more. I do not think the public will turn away from bitcoin if BTC crashes and BCH took over. Bitcoin will change the world and it is here to stay. We are only at 1 million and there is still 6 billion to onboard.

* Unsure of the accuracy of this but can be double checked on Blockchain.info

Related Articles

Why is Bitcoin Price Rising - It May Not Be What You Think - Here

Bitcoin Fork - Smoke. Mirrors and a good game of Poker - Here

Chain Death Spiral - Here

BTC is Dead - Long Live BTC - Here

BTC is Dead - Long Live BTC Updated and Explained ELI5 - Here

Why is Bitcoin Price Rising. The Answer May Not Be What You Think.

Greater adoption especially in Japan. True.
Higher prices leading to greater interest and media hype. True.
Large investors and hedge funds investing. Also True.
More people trust the Core developers. Perhaps True.
Segwit is locked in and will activate soon. Maybe True.

But what if the people in control allow it !?

So who are these people in control? They are the people who simply by their action will affect the price. No, not the market manipulators as their desired results are not guaranteed and effect only temporary. No not the developers or even users. I am talking about the people in control of the hashing (mining) power, and by their action supporting or withdrawing their hashing, affects the success or failure of a chain.

For the first time in Bitcoin history. if the miners withdraw their mining power from mining BTC, transactions on the BTC chain will grind to a halt. ( See Chain Death Spiral ) Block confirmation time will be exceeding long and user experience so bad that BTC's price will collapse. Just the announcement that they will do so is enough to affect the price negatively.

So why have they not done so before? Well, prior to the fork, they will only hurt themselves as they mine and hold BTC. Today they have another option. When this strategy plays out, their plan will make them all the money that they have dreamed about.

Some of the miners with about 40 percent of the mining power have fought a very bitter battle for big blocks over several years. It was a very nasty, very open spat with both sides spewing verbal diarrhea on social media. This will not be settled by just a simple agreement and bear in mind that none of the Core developers were present or signed the NYA agreement.

We hear justifications like :

• Miners mine the most profitable coin. True, but this is economic action not strategy.
• Miners will honor their agreement. Money talks. Everything else is just noise.
• Segwit and BTC is better technology. Better technology does not always win. 

Core developers are not the same as the army of programmers and developers pulling for Segwit and Side chains and Lightning. I cannot fault their passion, zeal and dedication. However they are just being used to push an agenda.

Core developers do not want Segwit2X and have openly said so even coding to exclude Segwit2X transactions. They did not expect the BCH fork, but even so, are perfectly happy with BTC as it is, even if it loses to the other chain. There will be no Segwit2X. Simply put there are no developers for Segwit2X. Core developers will not be coding for Segwit2X.

The Big Reveal.

This is the Rich List as at 13 August 2017. The numbers may not be 100% accurate but they do paint an unmistakable picture.
                                                      BTC      BCH                        BTC            BCH
                     10000 - 1000000     121         121                        3011886      3310777     +298891
                     1000  -  10000         1666       1688           +22     3544974      3635319      - 90345
                     100   -   1000           16594     16160        -434     3840815      3726874     -113941
                     10   -     100             129880   122874    -7006     4344270      4183607     -160663
                     1   -       10               464743   424298   -40445    1277766      1163236     -114530

Most of the BCH coins about 300K have been gobbled up by the top bracket of 121 addresses. If BCH and BTC flips at current valuation, it will mean a windfall of just over 1 Billion dollars now. When this finally plays out, it will make the "Big Short" look like a pauper's picnic.

All the rhetoric encouraging BTC owners to sell their BCH for BTC, and media hype pushing up BTC price helps their strategy, without them lifting a finger. All that is left to do is switch the chain when they are right and ready. Don't get caught on the losing side.

P/S Please share. Help your fellow bitcoiners get the best information before they make the investment of their future. Fear Of Missing Out especially now can lead to unwitting mistakes and losses.

Update 15 August 2017

                          BTC      BCH       TOT        BTC     BCH         BTC       BCH         BTC
                           ( Hash Power )                   ( Difficulty)           ( Block Time )    (mempool)
31 July                 6163                                    860                    
1 August              6440     1525      7965         860        860        9.66        160              5
2 August              6433      378                        860        860        9.47        205              5
3 August              5931      447                        860        860      10.43          41            10
4 August              7749      216       7965         860        225        8.04          75            23
5 August              7473      143       7617         860        225        8.13        110              5
6 August              6023      499       6612         860        114       10.28         22              3
7 August              6637      551       7188         860        114         9.41         18            33    
8 August              6835      154       6989         923        115         8.78         62            35
9 August              6200      541       6741         923        115       10.43         15            43
10 August            6165      576       6741         923        115       10.74         14            42
11 August            6600      338       6938         923        115       10.00         21            55
12 August            6199      416       6615         923        115       10.66         20            15
13 August            6808      440       7248         923        115         9.73         18.46       27
14 August            5951      522       6473         923        115        11.07        15.82       47

Floating                                           1492

14 August - Hash Power on BTC reduced to 5951 PH and increased on BCH to 522 PH. The BTC chain is starting to slow, with mempool at 47MB and Blocktime 11.07 minutes. It will be interesting to see if the hash power increases tomorrow.

The amount of 1492 PH in red is the difference (7965 - 6473) between the highest recorded and today. That amount of hash power exist but is not on the network. Somebody controls it. Watch what they do with it. BCH price is rising (0.072) as the BCT chain gets slower. Let us watch as BCH retake its' position as the Real Bitcoin. More To Come. Keep Sharing.

Bitcoin Fork - Smoke Mirrors and A Game Of Poker

In this article I present the facts as I see them and leave it to you to reach your own conclusions. My opinions are my own and I encourage you to do your own due diligence. I could be wrong. It is your hard earned money.

Rehashing and analysing the figures over the period of the fork it is clear now that Bitcoin Cash had a difficult birth. Looking back I am convince that it would have been highly unlikely to succeed. I think what eventually happened was planned and executed by persons unknown who clearly wanted Bitcoin Cash to succeed. The key is to analyse the available hash power and look at how it was applied.

Refer here to Jimmy Song's article on how the Emergency Difficulty Adjuster (EDA) kicked in. Before it can be activated at least 12 blocks must be mined! ( The UAHF specifications. Starting block 478557.)

The First 12 Blocks
                                                     ( Approximate Time Lapse between blocks)
August 1st 2017   AM  8:16:14
August 1st 2017   PM   1:12:41     4 hours 56 mins
August 1st 2017   PM   1:33:06                  21 mins
August 1st 2017   PM   1:37:19                    4 mins
August 1st 2017   PM   1:52:58                  15 mins
August 1st 2017   PM   2:37:44                  44 mins
August 1st 2017   PM   4:05:15      1 hour  28 mins
August 1st 2017   PM   4:35:44                   30 mins
August 1st 2017   PM   4:39:21                     4 mins
August 1st 2017   PM   6:38:29      1 hour   59 mins
August 1st 2017   PM   8:07:01      1 hour   29 mins
August 1st 2017   PM   9:51:49      1 hour   44 mins
August 1st 2017   PM  10:15:01                  23 mins

Looking at the figures I would say roughly there was about 1 hour between blocks. At the same difficulty of BTC's 6500 Peta Hashes producing 10 minute blocks, we will need at least 1/6 the hashing power to produce 1 hour blocks. That is about 1200 Peta Hashes.

                             BTC     BCH    TOT           BTC     BCH         BTC       BCH         BTC
                               ( Hash Power )                 ( Difficulty)           ( Block Time )    (mempool)

31 July                 6163                                     860                        
1 August              6440      1525      7965         860        860           9.66         160              5
2 August              6433       378                        860        860           9.47         205              5
3 August              5931       447                        860        860         10.43           41            10
4 August              7749       216       7965         860        225           8.04           75            23
5 August              7473       143       7617         860        225           8.13         110              5
6 August              6023       499       6612         860        114          10.28          22              3
7 August              6637       551       7188         860        114            9.41          18            33        
8 August              6835       154       6989         923        115            8.78          62            35
9 August              6200       541       6741         923        115          10.43          15            43
10 August            6165       576       6741         923        115          10.74          14            42
11 August            6600       338       6938         923        115          10.00          21            55


Prior to 1 August the highest amount of hash power recorded was on 24 July at 7118 Peta Hashes. This is roughly 1000 PH over total hash power on 31 July. We can therefore be sure that at least this amount of hashing power was available and at least 678PH was "floating" and withheld from the system. The maximum hash power ever applied to the BTC and BCH chains was 7965 PH in total on 4 August.

We know we need at least 1200 PH mining on the BCH chain on 1 August to find the first 12 blocks. From the above table we can see in red that there was at least 1500 PH available and I believe this was directed to mine the BCH chain. Without this input, it would have taken about 3 days to mine the first 12 blocks and the BCH chain would have been a failure.

The Morning After

Once EDA kicked in, the BCH chain is assured of survival. The next objective is to get the block time down to 10 minutes and profitable mining as soon as possible. Or is it? Hashing power was taken off BCH chain on the 4 and 5 August to trigger the 6 blocks difficulty reductions and again on 8th August for 1 additional reduction The BCH chain was left at 15 minutes about 4 blocks every hour.

In addition on 4 and 5 of August about 7500 PH of hashing power was applied to the BTC chain. Was this done to push up the next difficulty adjustment to 923G on 8 August and possibly higher at the next difficulty adjustment? (Bitcoin Wisdom)

This "floating" 1500 PH was withdrawn on 6 August. As of 11 August there is still at least 1200 PH of hashing power "floating" and withheld from the system. So who is this mystery miner or miners? What is their intention ?

The Aftermath

We can see that on 9 August about 600 PH was withdrawn from the BTC chain pushing the block time above 10 minutes. The result is that the BTC chain is clogging up with low fee transactions and the mempool has already reached 57MB. Only those willing to pay high fees can get their transactions processed. Unless there is a fast injection of mining power this chain is in trouble! It does not have the protection of EDA and the Chain Death Spiral can easily set in if not already started.

Voila as if by magic, today, 11 August 500 PH was returned to mining the BTC chain and 250PH was taken off the BCH chain. This still leaves about 1000PH still "floating".

Over the whole of this period BTC stayed above $3200 and went above $3500 yesterday and $3700 today. All of Bitcoin mainstream was celebrating, attributing it to CORE and Segwit.

I believe that this celebration is premature. BTC rise could be the result of world tensions in regards to the USA and North Korea, a worsening global economy and gold not making any impact, The situation must be bad enough for investors to just ignore and overlook BTC's vulnerability. Currently BCH, which I believe to be the real Bitcoin, is selling at a bargain.

Beware Smoke And Mirrors

There is much going on behind the scenes. Nothing is what it appears. Hashing power is being used to influence and manipulate the market. The high BTC price is great for those wanting to sell their BTC and accumulate BCH. This will result in a major wealth transfer from those holding BTC to those holding BCH. I believe that the true Bitcoin will flip from BTC to BCH but that is just my opinion.

A Great Game Of Poker

In this game, very few people are showing their hand. The Bitcoin whales have gone into deep dive and have not been seen or heard from since the chain fork. When the time comes to show their hands there will be winners and losers. I think that the unexpected rise and strength of BTC price is a complication but it will not change the "game plan".

I can only present the facts as I see them and the conclusion I draw are my own. You could easily form a different opinion looking at the same facts but that is your right. In the end when the tide goes out we can all see who is without clothes.

In this environment I am guided by principles. The reality in Bitcoin is that there is no Government to rule and favour any faction or group. It is nature at its' purest. Only the strong survive and any weakness is punished. I believe in its' current form BTC has a vulnerability (No EDA) and that will lead to its' demise. Three months is a long time in crypto.

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