Tuesday, February 25, 2020

How bad will be the economic impact from Covid 19.

The first case of Covid 19 was thought to be on 31st December. The belief was that the source was the wet market in Wuhan China, where because of the Chinese's penchant for consuming wild animals for heath reasons the virus jumped from animal to humans. Irony perhaps but very reasonable and believable that the virus jumped from bats to humans through an intermediate host thought to be snakes.

Fast forward and we have a paper published in the Lancet medical journal, about a new study by Chinese researchers claiming that the first case of Covid 19 was actually on 1 December. The person was elderly and lived several bus connections away from the Wuhan market. As he was sick he never visited the market.

We now know that the incubation period could be more than 14 days and that a person is contagious before showing any symptoms. Most will recover without showing any symptoms at all, and yet will be spreading the virus without ever knowing it. This was probably why the contagion was so widespread in Wuhan as it is so densely populated and infected people were spreading it around without knowing it.

The research was published in the Lancet which presumably will have been peer reviewed and is credible. If this is true then we still do not know the identity patient 0 and the source. They will probably discover this through DNA tracing but for now it remains a mystery.

Covid 19 is now with us for good, deal with it.

Quarantine is probably no longer a way to ward off this virus now. By its' nature of being contagious even before symptoms shows and even after recovery, there will be no way to prevent this virus from spreading to any country in the world. No country will be spared. It will only be a matter of time. The emphasis will have to move towards detecting and treatment until we have a vaccine.

Detecting

The first thing is to identify it from the common flu. The PCR method of detecting takes over a day and is thus slow however a Mexican company have a machine that can detect the virus within 3 hours and the unit is mobile. On detection the said patients can then be treated as best as a country's health services can offer.

Treatment

Fortunately for a majority of people (80%) will only experience mild or no symptoms. The virus does not seem to affect young children or even infants. Of those who show symptoms most will recover. The fatality rate is currently expected to be between 1 - 2 % or even lower. Better figures will be fort coming as we get better methods of detection.

One cure which seem to work is to use plasma donated by patients who have recovered. Another treatment that seem to work is an antiretroviral drug used to treat aids. A vaccine is on the way.

Covid 19 may not kill you but it can kill the economy and that may kill you.

For all the rage, Covid 19 is not as bad as we fear. The fear factor factor however will be devastating. Even in countries where there are no cases, the fear of contracting the disease will cause people to stay indoors. This is devastating for any service driven economy. This mentality and behavior will plunge any country into recession.

The best thing we can do is to stay calm and prepare.



Lancet medical journal report on BBC
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200221-coronavirus-the-harmful-hunt-for-covid-19s-patient-zero

Mexican Covid 19 detection
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eczKyj5Pqs8

Plasma treatment covid 19
https://www.industryglobalnews24.com/recovered-patient-s-blood-plasma-treatment-curing-covid19-infections

Antiretroviral Aids drug to treat Covid 19 cases
https://www.plenglish.com/index.php?o=rn&id=52152&SEO=kaletra-antiretroviral-test-against-covid-19-in-south-korea

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