Higher prices leading to greater interest and media hype. True.
Large investors and hedge funds investing. Also True.
More people trust the Core developers. Perhaps True.
Segwit is locked in and will activate soon. Maybe True.
But what if the people in control allow it !?
So who are these people in control? They are the people who simply by their action will affect the price. No, not the market manipulators as their desired results are not guaranteed and effect only temporary. No not the developers or even users. I am talking about the people in control of the hashing (mining) power, and by their action supporting or withdrawing their hashing, affects the success or failure of a chain.
For the first time in Bitcoin history. if the miners withdraw their mining power from mining BTC, transactions on the BTC chain will grind to a halt. ( See Chain Death Spiral ) Block confirmation time will be exceeding long and user experience so bad that BTC's price will collapse. Just the announcement that they will do so is enough to affect the price negatively.
So why have they not done so before? Well, prior to the fork, they will only hurt themselves as they mine and hold BTC. Today they have another option. When this strategy plays out, their plan will make them all the money that they have dreamed about.
Some of the miners with about 40 percent of the mining power have fought a very bitter battle for big blocks over several years. It was a very nasty, very open spat with both sides spewing verbal diarrhea on social media. This will not be settled by just a simple agreement and bear in mind that none of the Core developers were present or signed the NYA agreement.
We hear justifications like :
- Miners mine the most profitable coin. True, but this is economic action not strategy.
- Miners will honor their agreement. Money talks. Everything else is just noise.
- Segwit and BTC is better technology. Better technology does not always win.
Core developers are not the same as the army of programmers and developers pulling for Segwit and Side chains and Lightning. I cannot fault their passion, zeal and dedication. However they are just being used to push an agenda.
Core developers do not want Segwit2X and have openly said so even coding to exclude Segwit2X transactions. They did not expect the BCH fork, but even so, are perfectly happy with BTC as it is, even if it loses to the other chain. There will be no Segwit2X. Simply put there are no developers for Segwit2X. Core developers will not be coding for Segwit2X.
The Big Reveal.
This is the Rich List as at 13 August 2017. The numbers may not be 100% accurate but they do paint an unmistakable picture.
BTC BCH BTC BCH
10000 - 1000000 121 121 3011886 3310777 +298891
1000 - 10000 1666 1688 +22 3544974 3635319 - 90345
100 - 1000 16594 16160 -434 3840815 3726874 -113941
10 - 100 129880 122874 -7006 4344270 4183607 -160663
1 - 10 464743 424298 -40445 1277766 1163236 -114530
Most of the BCH coins about 300K have been gobbled up by the top bracket of 121 addresses. If BCH and BTC flips at current valuation, it will mean a windfall of just over 1 Billion dollars now. When this finally plays out, it will make the "Big Short" look like a pauper's picnic.
All the rhetoric encouraging BTC owners to sell their BCH for BTC, and media hype pushing up BTC price helps their strategy, without them lifting a finger. All that is left to do is switch the chain when they are right and ready. Don't get caught on the losing side.
P/S Please share. Help your fellow bitcoiners get the best information before they make the investment of their future. Fear Of Missing Out especially now can lead to unwitting mistakes and losses.
Update 15 August 2017
BTC BCH TOT BTC BCH BTC BCH BTC
( Hash Power ) ( Difficulty) ( Block Time ) (mempool)
31 July 6163 860
1 August 6440 1525 7965 860 860 9.66 160 5
2 August 6433 378 860 860 9.47 205 5
3 August 5931 447 860 860 10.43 41 10
4 August 7749 216 7965 860 225 8.04 75 23
5 August 7473 143 7617 860 225 8.13 110 5
6 August 6023 499 6612 860 114 10.28 22 3
7 August 6637 551 7188 860 114 9.41 18 33
8 August 6835 154 6989 923 115 8.78 62 35
9 August 6200 541 6741 923 115 10.43 15 43
10 August 6165 576 6741 923 115 10.74 14 42
11 August 6600 338 6938 923 115 10.00 21 55
12 August 6199 416 6615 923 115 10.66 20 15
13 August 6808 440 7248 923 115 9.73 18.46 27
14 August 5951 522 6473 923 115 11.07 15.82 47
14 August - Hash Power on BTC reduced to 5951 PH and increased on BCH to 522 PH. The BTC chain is starting to slow, with mempool at 47MB and Blocktime 11.07 minutes. It will be interesting to see if the hash power increases tomorrow.
The amount of 1492 PH in red is the difference (7965 - 6473) between the highest recorded and today. That amount of hash power exist but is not on the network. Somebody controls it. Watch what they do with it. BCH price is rising (0.072) as the BCT chain gets slower. Let us watch as BCH retake its' position as the Real Bitcoin. More To Come. Keep Sharing.