Thursday, May 14, 2020

BTC BCH BSV Miners Hashrate and Price

With BTC halving yesterday all three coins have halved and we can now expect that miners will be rational and mine profitably. Prior to halving BTC normally commands up to 98% of total hashrate. As of today (14/5/2020) this has reduced to 89% or 95 ExaHash and blocks found over the last 24 hours have reduced to 109 block from the standard of 144 blocks. 

Based on current prices BTC hashrate will decrease to 70% before mining equilibrium is achieved across all three chains. If this happens quickly and the hashrate drops to 84 ExaHash BTC chain will slow to a crawl. Unlike before miners who have left will not return to mine at a loss out of loyalty. Panic may set in when this becomes clear which will lead to a drop in price and we enter the dreaded Chain Death Spiral.


Drop In BTC Hashrate


Block Found in last 24 hours


Profitability Calculations.



What will inefficient BTC Miners do? 

Before Halving   11250  BTC  @ 9500 = $106.8 million =  $0.89 per Exahash (120 Exahash)
After Halving        5625 BTC  @9500  =  $53.4 million  =  $0.56 per Exahash  (95 Exahash )

BTC hashrate must reduce to 70 Exahashes to equate pre halving earning levels. It is currently 91 Exahashes (15/5/2020) . A reduction from 95 yesterday. Where will these miners go will they move to BCH and BSV or will they shut down altogether?


Can they move to BSV or BCH ?

5625 BSV @ 190 = $1.06 million = $0.75 million per Exahash ( 1% = 1.4 Exahash)

Since BTC halving the hashrate of BCH and BSV have increased to 3% and 2% respectively. However the miners who moved here will also be mining unprofitably as the price of BCH and BSV remained stagnant.

Since 11 May 50 Exahashes have been turned off. Only 87 Exahashes are left mining on BTC and it needs to decrease even more.  As a result the BTC chain is slowing down. The next difficulty adjustment is expected in 4 days and perhaps more if more miners stop mining. Even if it makes it to the next difficulty adjustment, the next difficulty is expected to increase from 16.1 T to 16.48 T !! This is a serious problem for the BTC chain.

This situation is fluid and developing. The BTC mempool is increasing fast.


It now cost over $5 to transact on the BTC chain. This situation will get worse. 

Why is the price of BCH ans BSV stagnant?

Since halving the price of BTC moved from $8700 to $9700 but the price of both BCH and BSV did not move in tandem. This can only mean that the supporters of each chain have remained steadfast. 

BTC supporters are unable to push the price past the required level of $14,000 at least. BSH and BSV supporters can remain where they are. Unless BTC supporters moved over to either of these two chains their prices will remain stagnant. The ball is in BTC supporters court. As the mempool bloats, and cost of transactions get ever higher, panic will set in.

Because BTC chain is slowing down, it is unlikely that BTC price will go any higher. If panic sets in BTC price will collapse.  At time of BTC halving it was expected that the next difficulty was to be readjusted in 6 days that has now passed and it is expected to take another 3 days. I suspect that it will be even longer possibly another 6 days. If this is true then the next difficulty adjustment could take as long as a month! Something will break before then.

BTC miners have been net selling mined coins since the halving


This graph from Byte Tree shows the net selling by BTC miners since the halving. 





5 comments:

  1. Hello everyone are you a forex/Binary/indices/crypto trader? or you Have heard about it for long and right now you wish to give it a trial ? please also be careful of these unregulated brokers advertising on the internet.
    You can avoid loses and also make good choices when choosing a broker to trade with.
    So i am recommending an expert(78 years old woman) who is well known all over EUROPE/America for her master class strategy, and her ability to recover loses no matter how long it must have been, she also gives free tutors for beginners.
    I share this because she has led me(and so many other people) away from the paths of failure into success for over 3 years now that I have known her and
    I'm making huge amounts of money through profits.
    Its a blessing to have someone like her
    Helping people like us at this time
    To reach out to Mrs Deja Ellie is very easy and she is ready to take up the challenges with you.
    All you have to do is drop a mail to her email address -( Dejaellie@gmail.com ) i shared this to help someone, you can also share to help someone else too!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Investment plansPROMO PACKAGE ?? BASIC Invest $70 earn $600 Invest $100 earn $1000  Invest $200 earn $2,000  Invest $300 earn $3,500  Invest $400 earn $4,500  Invest $500 earn $6,000 
      ?? PRO  Invest $1,000 earn $15,000  Invest $2,000 earn $25,000  Invest $3,000 earn $35,000  Invest $4,000 earn $45,000  Invest $5,000 earn $60,000  Invest $10,000 earn $100,000. 
      ?? PREMIUM  1BTC earn 5BTC  2BTC earn 10BTC  3BTC earn 16BTC  4BTC earn 22BTC  5BTC earn 30BTC. 
      ALL RETURNS ARE SCHEDULE, FOR 12 HOURS, UPON CONFIRMATION OF PAYMENTS.
      MODE OF PAYMENT. Any, Suitable For Investors, But Terms and Conditions Apply.
      ??HURRY NOW!!! Refer a Friend or Family member to invest same time, and Receive an instant $50 Reward. 
      To set up an INVESTMENT PLAN, Contact Admin: totalinvestmentcompany@gmail.com
      WhatsApp: +1(929)390-8581
      https://www.facebook.com/pg/Total-Investment-221964325813140/about/
      https://t.me/totalinvestment

      Delete
  2. Blockchain-based Digital currency is solid, fast and smart digital gold

    Do you know that major companies in all over the world are investing in cryptocurrency? The company called MicroStrategy, listed on NASDAQ, is a solid mid-sized company that has been established for over 30 years. And the company has a market capitalization over $1.3 billion. And shockingly, this company invested more than 80% of their assets in digital coin.

    “This investment reflects on our belief in digital currency. our investment is part of our new capital allocation strategy, which seeks to maximize long-term value for our shareholders,” said Michael J. Taylor,CEO,MicroStrategy Incorporated. “this is a reliable store of value and an attractive investment asset with the more long-term appreciation potential than holding cash.”

    another people and companies behind blockchain technology are MIT, Andreesen Horowitz, Tim Draper, Mark Cuban, JP Morgan and the thousand of smart computer science and math engineers. many people agree that cryptocurrency is called digital gold, stronger and smarter thank any other existing money. If those very smart and brilliant people are supporting blockchain, why don’t you get to learn and invest in cryptocurrency?

    If you are looking for reliable digital coin that you can get to learn and invest, here is the recommendation, BINT Protocol. This is the web application provides specific materials and information regarding blockchain development and an enhanced developing environment so that any users can create their own network in an hour.

    This company will officially go public December this year with the total supply 8 million BINT. the finance of sold BINT so far will be used for develop platforms, operations, business and marketing and during the third and fourth quarter of this year, BINT blockchain will be pre-sold and Explorer and wallet will be launched.

    If you would like to know more about it, go check it out:
    http://bintprotocol.com/

    ReplyDelete
  3. Great read! MintonBlock is a growing blockchain investment firm that provides opportunities and secure access to the digital currency asset class for accredited investors through its proven strategies and diversified portfolio. how to buy and invest in ethereum

    ReplyDelete
  4. Crypto Gaming Alliance Starts CGA Coin’s PRE-SALE.
    Eco-system of Crypto Gaming Alliance based on encrypted currency takes their first step.
    https://www.cgacoin.net/

    ReplyDelete