Will The Real Bitcoin Please Stand Up! Please Stand Up! Please Stand Up!

If we define "the real bitcoin" as the original vision laid out in the Bitcoin white paper by Satoshi Nakamoto, then yes, a version of bitcoin that conforms completely with the white paper would be the "real" bitcoin.

People may argue that the most important aspect of the "real" bitcoin is the consensus of the community that supports it, rather than any specific technical implementation. Let us examine this concept.

Say I invented and released a coin call Acoin, a great success. After a year another group, without my conscent, forks Acoin and convince exchanges to accept their coin as Acoin and assigned the name Bcoin to my coin! Which is the real Acoin?

Of course my coin is the "Real Bitcoin". It is not appropriate or legal for another group to fork my coin and use the same name without my consent. This could be considered copyright and trademark infringement and other legal violations. The community's acceptance or adoption of the new coin would not absolve the group from their actions.

Suppose I did not reveal my identity when I released Acoin. This will make it difficult for others to determine who is the rightful owner or creator of the coin, and make it easier for someone else to fork the coin and try to pass it off as their own apparently without facing consequences. However, if I can prove that I am the rightful owner or creator of Acoin, I will have legal recourse to protect my intellectual property rights.

Obviously the Real Bitcoin is the one that was created first, and would fully conform to the original white paper. The coin that deviates from the original white paper would be the fork coin. This is important as the fork coin is ILLEGAL. It builds on the original blockchain up to the fork and is therefore infringing someone's copyright. The perpetrators know that they do not own that part of the blockchain, and to removing it will kill their project. The fork coin is an illegal act and the organisers, collaborators and colluders have engaged in and profited from willful infringements. Criminal penalties apply.

Does the community get to decide which coin they prefer or consider to be the Real Bitcoin. Unfortunately for the community, the project was illegal to begin with. It is inevitable that faced with this reality the developers and collaborators will retreat and remove themselves from all and any association with the project. The coin will collapse, the community will be defrauded, and the law must be seen to apply and justice must be seen to be served. This is the reality.

This is why BTC people have put so much resources in debunking Craig Wright as the creator of Bitcoin. It is futile. They have committed and profited from an illegal act. Truth be told, it is irrelevant if Craig is the inventor of Bitcoin. They have willfully committed, profited and continue to benefit from an illegal act.

Had Craig agreed to endorse them and given BTC his blessings, they will be the first to sing his praises and hail him as Satoshi Nakamoto. But Craig is cut from a different cloth and that is their problem. The law will catch up to them sooner or later and they know it.

Bitcoin SV Next Bull Run

When will Bitcoin SV next bull run take place?

Guess we are all still buzzing over the last BSV price run up! When the dust finally settled BSV is up 300% and holding. So why did the last price hop happened? The main excuse was that CSW got the keys to his bitcoins! I commented then that it is nonsense as it was only a rumour and even if true the impact will be negligible. If the fear was that he would dump BTC to push up BSV then BTC should have experience a significant drop in price.

Those who are into BSV know that it is the original and real Bitcoin and are convince that it will be the only blockchain on which all blockchain apps will be built. The run up in price is only the first phase of existing whales and hedge funds building a position and new money coming into BSV.

Had it just been a CSW rumour then  BSV's price would have drop lower than from where it started - about $90. Instead it has settled around $300. The likely scenario is that this is the new floor from which the next price push will take place possibly to settle again between $600 and $900.

Timing a bull run is not a science. We can be sure that BSV will make its' biggest price break when hedge funds are convinced that BSV is the real Bitcoin. This will happen when all the arguments against BSV crumbles one by one and we reach tipping point in public perception first within the crypto community then in the wider public.

With that in mind the start of the next run should happen soon after the Genesis upgrade faultlessly. With that we should see all the apps timing for this event launch on the BSV blockchain. This burst in activity especially in monetized social media apps will pull many within the crypto community towards BSV.

How will it play out?

We should first see a sell-offs in alt as the smart developers and investors realise that their projects will work better on BSV. As before the move will be gradual but we will see it as a match between BCH and BSV.

It is quite surprising that BCH has maintained even the valuation it has now, with such low number of transactions on its' blockchain. Perhaps BCH supporters believe that it is digital silver to BTC'd digital gold. The truth is that with micro-transactions a reality, there is no need for digital silver, bronze or gold for that matter.

So the next phase will be a seesawing battle between BSV and BCH with the BSV whales taking every opportunity to build on their portfolio as the price moves in their favour. I suspect that BCH supporters will fight hard to prop up the value to stay ahead of BSV. If true this behaviour can be taken advantage off.

This phase will complete when BSV move to number 4 on coinmarket ranking indisputably, which will then trigger the next phase which is the race to NO 1.

WOW The Skip Happened ! Now For The Flip

When I wrote this article yesterday ( The Coming BSV Skip and Flip ) BSV was sitting at $170. Woke up this morning and it is $336 and has already surpass BCH at $331. No, I do not have a crystal ball or any inside information. I just noticed the volatility of BCH hashrate and suspected that something must be up with the Unknown Miners.

If BCH supporters are really desperately trying to keep their hashrate up by renting mining rigs then the game is really up. It is only a matter of time, as this will be a futile exercise. They will not have enough money to keep up with the rising price of BSV. It is a vicious feedback loop. Now it has happened. There will of course be resistance with market support but the outcome is inevitable. The fundamental value proposition for BCH is flawed.

For my observance this was my reward.

You've been permanently banned from participating in r/Bitcoincash

subreddit message via /r/Bitcoincash[M] sent 9 hours ago

You have been permanently banned from participating in r/Bitcoincash. You can still view and subscribe to r/Bitcoincash, but you won't be able to post or comment.

Note from the moderators:

Trolling

If you have a question regarding your ban, you can contact the moderator team for r/Bitcoincash by replying to this message.

Reminder from the Reddit staff: If you use another account to circumvent this subreddit ban, that will be considered a violation of the Content Policy and can result in your account being suspended from the site as a whole.

This is the first time that I have ever been banned and I have not posted there in 2 years. Guess the truth must hurt. Can't be that bad really because BCH price is actually up by about $70 since my post.

So the The Skip is over. Now the mainstream crypto presses will be pushing hard on the Tulip Trust narrative. Come on be serious. Anybody with common sense can see that it is all about the technology. Why is it that hard to fathom?

Unconfirmed if and buts about the tulip trust even if true, cannot account for the huge run up in price. It means that there is real demand especially when you realise that BSV price have been going up steadily since mid December and in reality since the delisting. 

Will The Flip happen now? Of course. More people are starting to believe or hedging their bets just in case.

Pump and Dump

Will there be a huge dump coming up? Unlikely. Those holding BSV are believers. Being a very divisive 3 way tug of war between the 3 coins those who wants to dump have done so already. The BSV community is even smaller than BCH, and those who are invested for the long term will hold on to their coins, which creates scarcity and more upward price pressure.

There will of course be attempts to push the price lower by traders but the variation will be no more than 30% at most and will be good opportunity to buy the dips. 

Watch the hashrate

I have explained what I believe will be the mechanics of The Flip so I will not repeat it here. As hashrate moves over to BSV, BTC's blocktime will rise and the mempool will bloat as well. This will be the start of the dreaded Chain Death Spiral for BTC. 

The average time between blocks for BTC is rising fast and is already at 17 minutes almost taking twice as long for blocks to confirm. 

Now that everybody have seen what happened BTC supporters will surely put up a valiant effort to prevent the Flipping. There will be lies, misinformation, market support, etc and again the outcome is inevitable. The value proposition that BTC is digital gold is also flawed. The great hope for BTC in the lightning network is also in trouble with security ans scalability issues.

As more people who have substantial financial stake in BTC realise, or start to feel uncomfortable about this, they will start to hedge by at least equalising the number of each coin held. This will of course drive up the price of already tightly held BSV. In a rising market miners will also withhold coins, selling only if they have to further restricting supply. Those selling in the hope of buying back on the dip if are unable to do so will quickly re-buyback at a higher price which will again add to upward price pressure.

Why should BSV succeed.

It has a useful value proposition anchored on a stable protocol with massive scaling.

Other ancillary reasons

1) The Bitcoin founder is behind the chain and supports the development of the chain. I have believed that Craig was Satoshi when he first turned up at this discussion back in June 2017. As more people accept this fact the negative connotation of Craig's effect on BSV price in the past will reverse. I also wrote another piece on why it matters.

2) The developer tools available to support building on BSV. The emphasis is on building useful apps, not on currency and price. The only way to get mass adoption is to get the masses using Bitcoin without them knowing that they are. 

3) The nChain team and Bitcoin Association are always announcing new apps, tools and developments. There is a sense of growth and vitality.

4) The BSV development team always deliver on their promises usually ahead of deadline scheduled.

5) The community is alot more friendly.

That said, all that is left to do is to sit back and watch events roll out as predicted. It is a great time to be alive and watch this drama play out.

The Coming BSV Skip and Flip

For the moment all eyes are on the huge price increase of BSV from around 98 USD to 170 USD over the last week. An increase of over 70% and would most probably exceed $200 soon. So what is happening?

For those who believe in the underlying technology of BSV the reason is clear and inevitable. BSV is the original protocol as described in the Bitcoin whitepaper and despite the timeline BTC and BCH are the forks off the true protocol. A "Back To The Future" scenario!

The main theme of this post is a prediction that BSV will soon surpass the price of BCH (The Skip) and thereafter go on to surpass the price of BTC ( The Flip ). Contrary to our intuitive nature of believing in the slow rate of change in the crypto sphere, these events will happen quite quickly, because theses events are very much determined by the mining hashrate.

For most of 2019 the hashrate for BCH was about 2% and BSV around 1% of the total hashrate. This week the hashrate in both these coins have doubled to 4% and 2% respectively. This means that miners are finding it more profitable to mine these two coins or the supporters of these coins are renting hashes to support their chain.

Notice the amount of "unknown" miners on the BCH and BSV blockchain and none on BTC. The hashrate on BCH have been fluctuating between 1.5 to 4.3% recently. For BCH, it is dangerous for its' hashrate to fall below that of BSV as it would very quickly be reflected in the price of these two coins.

Unknown Miners

Unknown miners have always been a part of Bitcoin mining, but the significant part that it is now playing on BCH and BSV is unprecedented. Seeing that is is more than 3%, the increase must be a switch from BTC mining either as a result of mining rentals or BTC miners dedicating some of their hashrates towards BCH and BSV without reveling themselves as doing so.

The increase in blocktime on BTC is starting to show. Keep an eye on this developing situation.

There is still much debate going on about which is the true Bitcoin and which will survive. Miners are business people and they will only be motivated by profit. It does not matter to them which coin wins as they will always mine the most profitable coin.

Prior to November 2018 the price of BCH which included BSV fluctuated a great deal but after that date BCH price have mainly trended downwards.

BSV price on the other hand trended downwards because it was delisted on many leading exchanges but has since trended upwards against BTC as oppose to BCH. The price drop as a result of delisting must be looked upon as a manipulated event and accounted for when studying the chart above.

Against BCH the price of BSV is also clearly trending upwards.

All these events must be looked at as part of the continuing struggle between BTC, BCH and BSV as to which is the real Bitcoin. When 3 coins are competing on the same mining algorithm only one will win. This is a winner takes all scenario.

The Skip
It is dangerous for BCH if its' hashrate falls below that of BSV as this will soon be reflected in the price. Because the price of BSV have been on the uptrend we can expect that some miners are dedicating a little of their hashrate to mining BSV as a defensive move. These will mainly be the source of the Unknown miners we see on the BSV blockchain.

The dilemma for BCH supporters is that if they do not do something about the mining hashrate their coin will be in danger. As price is not a real factor in the volume of Unknown miners on the BCH blockchain we can only surmise that it is the result of hashrate rentals by BCH supporters.

This situation is unsustainable as the more BSV price increase against the more hash rate they must rent from the available rental pool and also carry the losses on the BCH mined as BCH price trends against that of BSV.

This will all come to a head when BSV price exceeds that of BCH. This is the Skip event, after which the price of BCH will move down sharply. BCH goal of becoming digital cash will be over. It is not possible to be used as a digital currency if your market cap is less than 2 Billion USD.

The Flip
During the BTC and BCH war, BCH overtaking and replacing BTC was known in the crypto community as the flippening. This did not happen and BTC successfully retain the overwhelming majority of the Bitcoin hashrate.

BCH survived the Chain Death Spiral because it had the Emergency Difficulty Adjustment programmed in. It was able to retain a percentage of mining hashrate commensurate with its' price for profitable mining. This also applied to BSV after it forked from BCH.

We have already seen today at least 3% of hashrate moving away from BTC. As the battle between BSV and BCH intensify we will see more hashrate moving away.  The BTC blockchain is acutely vulnerable to loss in hashrate and the Chain Death Spiral. We may start seeing a slowdown in BTC blocktime in the next few days.

The halvening of the BTC, BCH and BSV will have a large impact on the price and hashrate distribution between these coins. If prices do not double to maintain profitability, it must be met with increasing value collected through transaction fees. Only BSV have the capacity to gain more from transaction fees per block than block subsidy.

Note the steady increasing trend in transaction fees over block reward for BSV.

Soon after The Slip, our attention will be turn to The Flippening round two BSV against BTC. This time there will be a real difference in ideology between the two chains.

A coin can only be relevant if it is useful. It will not be useful to the masses unless it can scale. Here BSV clearly trumps BTC as it can already achieve thousands of transaction comfortably while BTC is still stuck at a maximum of 7 transactions a second. Large blocks means lower cost per transaction leading to new applications built around micro transactions. Usefulness brings mass adoption. BTC is clearly not geared towards mass adoption but towards being used by a minority as digital gold. This will not succeed as it requires Governments to adopt BTC in their currency reserve in order to push the price of BTC towards a million dollars a coin perhaps. This is unlikely because participants in the world monetary system will not want to see huge chuck of wealth in BTC they do not control.

BSV on the other hand will achieve this by default. In striving for scaling and mass adoption and it will become embedded into all our lives at a global level. National currencies will be tokenised on the BSV blockchain and this will be the "Killer App" that will cement BSV as the real Bitcoin.

With scaling comes mass adoption leading to The Flippening.

Last Note For The Skeptics.
If you are still skeptical about the above then this chart may change your thinking. Using BCH as a base every crypto coin including BTC is negative except for BSV.

The Flippening

https://bitcoinandtheblockchain.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-flippening-btc-to-bch-wealth.html

https://bitcoinandtheblockchain.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-flippening-btc-to-bch-last-mile.html

https://bitcoinandtheblockchain.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-flippening-120-billion-reasons-why.html

High Fees Is An Extinction Event

Make no mistake. The rats are scrambling off this BTC sinking ship. High Fees is an extinction event. Like all extinction events there is always a group of loutish and very vocal band of hard core deniers. Their arguments are hypocritical, and their reasoning always seem incomplete.

BTC dominance below 40%

Today BTC dominance dropped to 38.4%. Total Market Cap is still 600 billion. This means that value have flowed to other currencies this time to Ripple. Value flows to crypto through BTC because it is the main bridge with all fiat currencies.

This happened before when value flowed to Ethereum. That was stopped in its' track because Ethereum encountered several major problems. ( DAO, more hacks and scaling issues )

Will Ripple become the new No 1 crypto coin?

Possible but it will be temporary, until BCH takes over. This upsurge is a pump and FOMO event, timely as many investors are looking to exit BTC. The fact that bankers like it strengthens their believe that this could be a major crypto coin. Again do not be fooled. Ripple is nothing but a token. Issued by a central authority. 38 billion are in circulation and 62 billion is in reserve.

It is not a mineable coin ( POW or POS) It is just issued (printed) out of thin air. Its value is in saving banks and financial institutions billions in interbank transfer fees. For this system to work it needs a large market cap. It certainly has that now. Banking transfer systems like SWIFT will not be silent in the face of this development eating into their business model.

It will be an intermediary token for financial institutions to move value among themselves. In short Ripple is not an everyday currency to be used by common folks. I don't think there is even a wallet for it. I suspect that most are held on exchanges and by the banks.

High fees is an extinction event.

Anybody who has a sizeable BTC holding is certainly now worried that their "store of value" may be in jeopardy. As we can see most of this value is moving to Ripple. When they realise that Ripple cannot be a store of value, much of that value will look for a new home - Bitcoin Cash.

Bitcoin Cash is the real bitcoin. It always was. The fork was BTC which added Segwit. Bitcoin Cash is still the same Bitcoin that I knew and loved in 2013. More and more people are beginning to realise this, as they find that they can no longer use their bitcoin to transact. All businesses that use to accept bitcoin have stopped accepting it.

The only argument left is for it to be a "store of value" and that is gone too, now that value have moved to Ripple! of all things. I guess people still want to trust banks. But they have to realise that banks do not own Ripple, and Ripple does not represent shares in the banking system.

Bitcoin will still achieve valuation of 100,000 and even 1 million a coin.

However that is in reference to Bitcoin Cash. This will happen when BTC is booted off the bitcoin mining algorithm. For me this can't happen soon enough. Bring on the Chain Death Spiral.

What are miners are waiting for? They are in control of BTC's fate.

What do you know. BTC's hashrate just plummeted 6EH from 18 to 12 and still dropping. Maybe this is the flippening happening now. Watch BCH price action to confirm.

Till Death Do Us Part - The Partening

BTC : " Where should I go? What should I do?"

BCH : " Frankly my dear, I don't give a damm "

             

This big block/small block saga like the story above, started well. So what happened? And as the question begs. Where should BTC go? What can BTC do?

Sadly, for BTC there are no good outcomes. The Chain Death Spiral has set in and it can only have one ending. The BTC chain will come to a grinding halt, because the little hashing that is left, will not be enough to take it past the next difficulty adjustment, if it makes it past the one coming up.

At the very core,(pun intended) the real difference between BCH and BTC is that people embracing BCH believe in the protocol while people embracing BTC believe in the development team. Because the protocol was held hostage by the development team, this current state of affair arose. Never again should we allow, or even make it possible for any faction, not even miners, hold the protocol hostage.

We are now watching the end game play out. The value of BTC is crumbling. The parties holding the price up will soon give up completely. It is futile, When the chain in question is impossible to use, it does not have a value. Already 38.95% of the hashrate have migrated to BCH and they are never going back, despite wishful assurance that they will, arguably to chase better profits. In reality, for a large majority of miners, the bitter experience of the past have been too painful. In addition it also does not make any sense to be mining on both chains.

A miner now earns 83% less, mining on the BTC chain. In addition he wont be able to cash out for at least 2 days and by then the prices could have fallen further. No commercial miner can absorb these losses for long, no matter how strongly he supports the losing chain. His losses are uncapped, unknown and uncontrollable. Contrast this situation to that of the initial early BCH miner. He could allocate and budget for a cash burn until the project succeeds. His losses are capped, known and controllable.

BTC price may never recover. It will slide downwards with decreasing usability, The BTC chain may never be profitable to mine on again. On the other hand the price of BCH will trend upwards with increasing hashrate migration.

The End

Soon, BCH block height will surpass BCT to become the longest chain. By then it may even have the higher amount of hashing power. The BTC chain will just grind to a halt. It may not even see the next difficulty adjustment. The core team can move their agenda to Litecoin. The natural order and balance of the crypto universe will be restored. 

Related Articles

Chain Death Spiral - Watch In Real Time - Here

Will the real Bitcoin Please Stand Up - Here

A Tale Of Two Coins - Here

Bitcoin Cash Will Regain The Mantle To Be Bitcoin - Here

Chain Death Spiral - Here

Will The Real Bitcoin Please Stand Up. Please Stand Up.

Over 2600 years ago, far away in the mist of time, in ancient Turkey, the Lydians and the Medes had been at war for 5 years. According to the Greek philosopher Herodotus, in the year 585 BCE, in the midst of battle, there was a solar eclipse and day was turned into night. The Lydians and the Medes took it as an omen that the gods wanted them to stop fighting and so peace ensued.

Tomorrow 21 August 2017 there will be solar eclipse over large swathe of the USA. On this day the Big Blockers and Small Blockers who have been at war for nearly 5 years decided to lay down their keyboards and peace came upon us and the community was once again united.....LOL NOT.

Back to reality

Over the last 3 days the whole of crypto and mainstream media was ablaze with the news of the nearly five fold increase in BCH price to over 1000 USD, sweeping aside all predictions of its' early demise. Of course to those of us who are of the opinion that the BCH fork was a fork back to the original bitcoin, we are not at all surprised. It was rather expected and with the anticipation of more to come, until the Cashening.

Fitting in the pieces

Looking back, we learn that 55% of the trading volume over the last 24 hours amounting to 1.7 Billion USD, yes billion with a "B" was transacted on 3 South Korean exchanges. To put this in context, the total worldwide 24 hour trading volume for BTC was only 2.6 billion. More important was that the 1.7 billion was in fiat. Not BTC. It is clear now that BCH explosive price rise was a result of heavy buying from South Korea with "new money".

So why only South Korea and for BCH? There was no buying pressure from China or Japan. China played a huge part in BTC trade volume until the Chinese government clamp down on the exchanges. The slack was later picked up by Japan when the Japanese Government legalise Bitcoin on 1 April this year. Then on 24 July South Korea made bitcoin payments legal.

South Korea the world's 12 largest GDP and a East Asian Tiger economy made its' mark in the crypto world with a huge play in BCH. South Korea the home of Samsung with 17% share of the world mobile phone market is now officially in the crypto business, and they selected BCH as their vehicle.

This is significant and mark the difference in philosophy and approach by these 3 East Asian economic competitors. China chose to develop their own national digital currency. Japan decided to go with BTC and South Korea have chosen BCH. Who will be right?

Coming back to the 1.7 billion USD 24 hour trade in BCH. This amount of money cannot come from just ordinary citizens. Large institutions and perhaps even banks are involved. This play is not over. Not by a long shot. Expect to see higher and quicker price rises in BCH, especially when the rest of the world catches on to what is really happening.

Will the real Bitcoin please stand up.

Yesterday for the first time it became more profitable to mine BCH than BTC. Today at block 479808 BCH had its' first standard difficulty adjustment and is now only 7% the mining difficulty of BTC. These are watershed moments and marks the point at which miners will choose to mine the more profitable BCH chain, and initiating the dreaded Chain Death Spiral for BTC. So when will BCH replace BTC as the real Bitcoin?

In a Twitter post, Gavin Andresen said that he will refer to BCH as Bitcoin if it has the longest chain and his view is echoed throughout the community. Over the last 24 hours 139 BTC blocks and 263 BCH blocks were found respectively. This is a difference of 124 blocks. As of now the BCH chain is 1452 blocks behind  BTC. This means that in as little as 11 days and most probably earlier the BCH chain will overtake the BTC chain to become the longer chain. Will we then call BCH Bitcoin?

Another twist. Ryan Charles in his latest Youtube post suggested that BCH should just be called CASH. Wow. What a great idea. A totally left field proposition and yet on reflection its' simplicity is indeed powerful. BCH is exactly that - CASH - Spending Money.

So now we come back to the question of  between China, Japan and South Korea, which country chose correctly. My money is on South Korea. What's yours?



Related Articles

A Tale Of Two Coins - Here

Bitcoin Cash Will Regain The Mantle To Be Bitcoin - Here

Chain Death Spiral - Here