Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Can Bitcoin Survive - Part 3

This bear market is a “forrest fire” raging through the crypto ecosystem. It is necessary for a healthy ecosystem to clear the deadwood and allow new more resilient shoots to sprout and grow. What is important is to take stock of your position understand the changes and identify which are the new and innovative unicorns. Do this without the baggage and drag and of emotional attachments to any pet projects. It is your money and your future.
You may have lost a good part of your investment, but it is relative. The ratio of your crypto worth is still the same. Re-evaluate your investment strategy and spot those unicorns that are sure to appear. They are usually the silent ones. Above all remember it is only money, and when one door closes another opens.
If you need empathy hope and direction, this video will help you reset your bearings.

After The Fire.
You will no doubt hear all the reasons why the bear market set in. Perhaps they all play a part but really going back to history and saying crypto have always drop 90% and then risen to new heights, therefore just hoddle, think again. History does not repeat. It Rhymes. The conditions of the future are different from the past.
A blockchain without a token is just another database. BTC is just another token. It may not survive or more likely remain in its’ premium position but blockchain technology will change, evolve and improve. Take a wide angle look at this space. Like transport technology, we needed the horse and buggy to develop the automobile and the formula one speedster. Take a critical unemotional look at your pet projects. This space moves faster than the internet age. Ten years is too long for a project to be still in its’ infancy. More likely the evolution have taken place and you have been left behind. 
Blockchain is an internet technology. If your project is not growing then it is dying. That is the unemotional unvarnished truth. Blockchain technology have moved from BTC to Ethereum to EOS. There is a whole new ecosystem built around EOS. This ecosystem is growing and gaining new users everyday.
Eos Knights – 3700 daily users and growing. You can earn real money (EOS) by mining and  crafting items. Businesses will set up to do this on an industrial scale because there is a real revenue stream here. Users spend an average of $6 a day on  Eos Knights compared to about 30 cents per month on the most popular online game today. The gaming industry have taken notice and are rushing to build and incorporate blockchain technology into their products. This is only possible today on the EOSIO platform.
BetDiceEosPoker and a host of other gambling dapps are launching on the EOS platform. Developing on the EOS blockchain bypasses the licencing, identity and fiat on/off ramp issues. They are designed to transition into Decentralised Autonomous Corporations and so be impossible to shut down. Currently, for the investor returns of 1% a day is the norm. This situation will not last. Price of tokens in the best of these DAC will rise to reflect a more normal rate of return.
EVA will disrupt the ride share industry because it gives most of the income and control back to the drivers and users. Everipedia will replace Wikipedia because a system will be in place to rank and value truth and facts. EDNA seeks to give back control of bio-metric information to the individual. Of course it is only logical that new versions of Youtube, Facebook, Instagram, Wechat will launch, moving away from push ad based systems where your private information is a commodity to these behemoth. A new email system will arise where unsolicited spam will be a thing of the past.
The most interesting aspect of the EOS blockchain is free transactions. Because of this it will be possible to introduce Universal Basic Income. The concept that every living person on this planet will have access to a basic income. We are moving into a new future where the concept of work, jobs and income will change. When we solve fusion power, which is looking promising, hunger will be a thing of the past. We will be able to synthesise our food and reshape our environment with abundance of free energy. Payments can be made instantly and for free to every account in the system. The only question is where this new wealth for distribution will come from. Dan Larimer proposes his concept of Universal Resource Income where the income from resource trading on the EOS blockchain is distributed. I have no doubt that something like this will be the future as the economy depends on people spending and discouraging uneconomic static wealth accumulation.
How will this bear market play out?
The IMF have advised governments to look into blockchain currencies. Venezuela have introduced the Petro, Iran have indicated that they want to develop a digital currency. The biggest hurdle that they will encounter if they use a private blockchain is recruiting an army of developers, security and a useable wallet.
The only viable solution is to develop on a public blockchain and that blockchain will be EOS. A government can effortlessly issue their national currency on the EOS blockchain. They will have full control over its’ issuance, be able to give their citizens full transparency over monetary and fiscal policies, security, free instant transactions and have many mobile wallets to choose from.
With Bancor these currencies, even if they are on sister chains and be moved effortlessly from one to the other effectively solving the problem of currency translation. Perhaps the concept of a stable coin is unnecessary. Value can just be moved and interchange from one to another through the Bancor network.
This brings us back to the existing bear market. How will it play out? Coins don’t die. Each will have its’ own band of converts and die hard users. The value of each will depend on utility and user base. EOS will probably become the most valuable token and most used blockchain. BTC may evolve to be a digital asset and a store of value. Money will remain the purview of governments and be used as the prime legal tender within their own boundaries with the assurance that if they abuse this privilege their citizens will simply switch to another token.
Finally, please beware. These are only my predictions and not facts. Critique the reasoning behind and do your own research. Good Luck.

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Can Bitcoin Survive - Part 2

The Bitcoin Cash Hash War
At 10.30 Craig Wright reveals his motive. That he wants to crush Roger and Jihan totally. He wants them to sell everything hey have to support ABC. At 11.30 Craig reveals that he(SV) is selling BTC. Today BTC fell through 4000. There will be panic. Lots of people have and are going to lose more money holding BTC or any crypto for that matter as they are all pegged to BTC. There will be a rush for the exits.
Whether Craig is Satoshi or not is irrelevant. This guy can certainly act on his pronouncements. He claims Roger and Jihan has at most 1.5 million BCH and not much BTC. Perhaps his group is selling BTC probably accumulated at less than $100. $3000 is still very good profit so we can say he can sell right down to $0 and still be smiling. Jihan has an IPO coming up. If BTC tanks like it is now he can kiss that IPO goodbye.
Bitcoin ABC hash rate just tanked today. Could be a switch to BTC to minimise losses but SV is still mining on. So Craig’s claim that ABC miners will give up before he does bears up. If that hash rate does not return ABC is toast.
How will this end?
Craig’s motive seem to be to get the banks and corporations to use BSV. Possibly a top down approach with banks offering BSV accounts to all their customers. If the incentive to banks is also controlling BSV then it could work. The road will be long nevertheless which is why he mentioned 2026.
BTC will not survive this price drop. It means no further development in mining technology. Some miners will shut down to lower the difficulty towards economic price equilibrium, and fire up again if the price recovers. If the Chain Death Spiral sets in then it is curtains. Block time will go so long that the chain will be unusable.
Who will be the winner
EOS is a third generation blockchain. The first was BTC with smart money. The second was Ethereum with smart contracts. And Eos with Smart contracts at scale. BTC depended on speculative money coming in from the real world economy. Ethereum depended on real world money coming into IPOs. EOS however is able to tap into sustainable real world income streams.
Whether you approve of gambling or not the gambling dapps on EOS are the first sustainable economically viable activity on a blockchain. This is real. Gambling is a human activity like eating and sleeping and sex. The operative word is sustainable. My estimate is that 10,000 Eos or roughly 40,000 dollars is now flowing into the EOS ecosystem daily and will escalate exponentially. This is real money coming in and it is here to stay and grow the ecosystem. Not speculation.
Then you will have Dapps like EVA taping into the ride share market. Another revenue stream from the real world economy and there could be others on the horizon.
If I am right about this then we should see a decoupling of EOS from BTC. That is the price of EOS will no longer follow BTC going down. Lets lay back and see how this plays out in the next few days.

Can Bitcoin Survive

If bitcoin was going to be a reserve currency it would have by now.
From its’ peak of 20K in January of this year it has drop month after month and is poised to break below 4000 soon. If bitcoin was going to be a reserve currency and hit mainstream, used by everyone as money then it would have done so by now. At least the adoption would be on an upward slope.
The above graph clearly shows that adoption growth stopped in January and we have been on a downward trend ever since. In the world of the internet, if you are not growing then you are dying. That is the awful truth. Bitcoin is just too volatile to be used as money. For that we need a stable coin. As a reserve currency, there is just too much push back from central banks. They are unable to control the issuance of bitcoins and they certainly do not want to elevate Satoshi and all the early adopters to become the richest people in the world. Even richer than countries. No no most countries that have large holdings of gold will prefer that gold be the reserve currency. The problem is that real gold reserves are not held by countries like the UK, EU and USA. They play around with paper gold and so far they have managed to hold back the price of real gold. The new Shanghai gold exchange and the possibility of a gold backed Yuan may break this impasse. We shall see.
Is this the end of the road for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin weakness is also its’ perceived strength – mining. As the price tracked upwards and asic miners became more efficient, home miners were driven out of the market towards large scale industrial miners controlling a few mining pools. This huge waste of energy to secure the chain would be fine if there was not another way. As it is when the price starts tracking downwards, all marginal operators will have to shut operations. No miner can afford to mine at a loss for long. The last to holdout will be those with access to the cheapest electricity and even these will have to give up as bitcoin price track towards $3000.
With the sharp drop in difficulty, block time for BTC have started to lengthen. This drop in difficulty is caused both by the Bitcoin Cash wars as well as the drop in price. Bitcoin may yet get snared up in the dreaded “chain death spiral“. 11 more days to the next difficulty adjustment.
Proof of Work and Proof of Stake
If you really don’t need to spend millions of dollars in electricity to secure the chain then why should you? Proof of work proponents have always insisted that we have to and that proof of stake is inherently flawed as it favours those who hold the most coins.
The EOS chain is delegated proof of stake, and have been live since June. It has humm along effortlessly gathering adoption and users at measurable rate weekly. Refer to Blocktivity and Dapp Radar. Barely 6 months old and there is an increasing number of high volume dapps building on the chain. Proof of stake works. EOS works and continues to improve with every update and upgrade.
The way to become money is not to try to be money.
Money is what everyone accepts as money. Unlike Bitcoin and almost all other cryptos EOS does not try to become money. It is a platform for fast, secure and free transactions. Because of this central banks may issue their currency on the EOS mainnet or their own sister chain. Cross chain transactions will not be a problem when transacting across several national currencies. Being a platform token EOS will not be a stable coin.
A stable token will emerge and gain worldwide adoption to the extent that everything worldwide is priced in this stable unit. What this is will be is yet to be seen but it is likely that something will happen. Perhaps the Bancor algorithm could pave the way towards such a stable coin or an exchange unit.
If this is the future then Bitcoin will have no future. We shall see.